RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:KRENSAVAGE COMING UP ON BNN ... NOW Or, more likely, current debt holders are going "holly moly, how can these "Senior Secured First Lien Notes" (new debt) come in front of us?!
Can we do anything to block it? No! It's closing sometime next week and it appears they already have a non-public money lined up. How convenient.
Being "first lien" means these Notes holders will own the non-Amco assets. Force default, keep the entire portfolio and flush debt and shareholders. Pure and simple.
If this game theory is reality, the win is already determined.
Bondholders and shareholders have already lost.
Checkmate even before most current owners realize they are in a complex chess game with no moves to escape.
But all of this is pure speculation based on various credible inputs and valid theories.
As you say, it's really a "black box" right now. The puppeteers have still not been identified but there's some pretty bold moves being made. It won't save shareholders in my view and it will be interesting to see how many get fool with the fake gold ("adjusted EBITDA" based numbers) being pumped.
Even with the years of self invesing experience, I don't know how to play this at the current point of time. "Watching from a distance" seems to be the best but I want to jump in big but there's just too many red flags to go long.
I'd love to see options traders lay out their strategy from here.