RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:KRENSAVAGE COMING UP ON BNN ... NOW
I don't think Concordia currently holds the deed to Amco yet. It appears to still be with a legal transfer agent in the UK and will remain there until the earn-outs are completed? There is some information on the filings but I don't think it's layed out well enough so that an average small investor would be able to figure it out (without learning how Deeds work under UK laws).
I was curious why the company announced the "transaction" had been completed in 2015. It seem the completion date now is February 2017 when the final payments are now due?
Seeing if the first delayed payment gets made in December will be the key test. All we know right now is they didn't didn't have enough cash which is really suspect given that Amco was touted as a "cash cow" during the past year. That was very alluring. And now? The reality is Amco can't even pay its own earn-out for the year!??? That's a huge red flag! Promise one thing, delivery another. They have no money for acquisitions and don't be surprised to see this new preferred debt money, $350M being used to pay Cinven and a few other "bait" acquisitions they'll present to the public equity market. I need to start writing a case study on this...
They don't have enough cash and don't want to touch the small 200M revolver loan to pay it so they just deferred to December and February. Like the poor low-earner who gets "don't pay until 2017" loans on TVs and furniture and buys everything on credit "with no payments".
If you can't pay your bills now and your revenues are declining, it's doesn't take a financial wizard to know you're in trouble!
Investors, don't drink the "adjusted EBITA" kool-aid! Look at the whole picture before you get excited!
Disclosure: I was long and a big bull on this at times based the promises of the Amco "cash cow" which is just an old thing, that was jacked up on hormones, pumped dry and can't even pay for herself now! The previous own has dibs on her carcass.
If I was holding right now, it would be a short and/or options for the stock to be near worthless within a year. I just don't know how to play options here. And I don't like to short but I might have to start liking it and be comfortable with it...
But based on my past performance here, don't follow a thing I'm thinking on a trade strategy. I haven't made any money here because of the blind sides and continued failed expectations. This was a contrarian's worst nightmare because it wasn't supposed to be a speculative stock.