Concordia Healthcare Corp. T.CXR.R

correction short-lived?

[Carlos66]

with a 5%+ hit in one one would hope it is short-lived; so the $84 level must hold!

When the last time biotechs corrected here & in the US, how long did that take!

carlos

[1condor]

Just over a week ago I mentioned the stock was well ahead of itself (that was a no brainer) and a pull back to 88 was in the cards. Well my crystal ball never fails me. Downside seems limited to around 85 dollars where solid support is seen.

[TimeScape]

Took a half position today at $84. Will buy the other half if it fills the gap down to about $65ish. Good long term prospects, and the June-Sept period is seasonally strong for healthcare stocks.

[fdfd12]

if it reaches 65, then will go to $20. Very doubtful that will go to 65. 65 means something very wrong with CXR

[TimeScape]

One of the basic principles in technical analysis is the "gaps get filled". The gap on the CXR chart is down to $65. There is a reasonable chance it gets there. If not, I have my half position.

[fdfd12]

NOT all gaps get filled. If something material (VERY IMPORTANT) is the reason for teh agp, then it wont get filled. OTC in July 2014 AYA June 2014 VRX Jan and FEB 2015 etc.. CXR had a very material news and a GAP which wont get filled unless we are back to 2008 conditions.

[cg16]

what material news are you referring to for CXR? thanks

[fdfd12]

That they bought a company that is equally as big as they are. That is why the stock jumped from 60's to 80's.

[cg16]

I see, thanks. I thought I missed something that triggered the significant drop and created a new gap. The fundamentals haven't changed, and based on consolidated earinings multiple, this stock is cheap in the Pharma space (13X?). not to mention, that we can likely expect another billion dollar deal coming shortly. I assume from Europe this time since Thompson, whenever he speaks to the market

[TimeScape]

Well, the multiple depends on which one you are considering. The diluted eps for 2014 was 43 cents, which gives you a multiple of about 200x. The adjusted eps for 2014 was 1.88, which gives you a multiple of about 45x. If you look at just Q4, the adjusted eps was 74 cents, which would be a run rate of $2.96 for a year, which would give a multiple of about 29x. If you want to try to estimate 2015

[cg16]

I don't see any reason to look at a multiple of earning prior to the acquistion now that it is closed? I think the analysts calculated that the consolidated adj earnings will be $6-7 per share.. that's 13-14X today. that is even cheaper than the TSX right now. I think it is at 15X?

[1condor]

This is a tough call at 84.00. It is sitting right around the support level. If it doesn't hold then it will be a rush for the exit for technical investors as the downside will be around 63. I would bet there are some shorts jumping on this one today..and they might turn out to be right. Wednesday will be a very interesting day for trading on CXR.

[TimeScape]

Yup, $63-65, that's about right, if it continues to slide. If not, if the healthcare sector turns around, I think it gets back up to $100 this summer.

[fdfd12]

The IBB ws down big the last 2 days but rallied back today. CXR did not. I say it plays catch up and will be back close to 90's by the end of the week if not, next week. $100's is after earnings.

[1condor]

fdfd12..you could be right..it might run higher. It is a tough call as CXR is sitting right on the support level. It could go either way. The next couple days will set the trend.

[kelvin777]

It should higher today as Valeant reports stronger Q1 results, issues bullish outlook for Q2 and 2015 Other pharmaceuticals will follow