Concordia Healthcare Corp. T.CXR.R

My Theory

[Longboarder]

I bought CXR last year around the $40 mark and have been following this board ever since. I have developed a theory based on my research and what I have read on this board. Some of these ideas have allready been mentioned so I apologize for any repetition.

I beleive a Blacktone bid in the $80-85 CD range will be announced shortly. 

Blackstone, MT, and any intelligent and patient investor realize that this stock is way undervalued due to short manipulation and unfair association with Valeant. However, they also realize that a couple strong quarters for CXR will finally shake the shorts and push CXR back towards the $100 range within the year. 

However, pressure from impatient investors means that MT needs to do something now about the stock price. On the other hand, Blackstone can take advantage of the low stock price and buyout a cash cow with great fundamentals. MT knows he cannot take an offer under $80 back to the shareholders and Blackstone would not be at the negotiation table if they weren't willing to bid that much. The bid is coming, the bigger questions are whether shareholders will acccept the offer and whether there will be other bidders.

What baffles me is that there is not more buyers at this price. Buying an obviously undervalued stock that is likley to be bought out, seems like a no-brainer to me. Especially knowing that the only downside is a short-lived drop down to $30.

[puma1]

longboarder  - add to it my idea that is was baby Blackstone that wanted in for the 14% but Daddy Blackstone started looking around and thought the whole thing might be a better idea.

[relaxxxxxxo66]

This stock is a no brainer,lots of cash flow and a future, an easy BUY!

[Roller007]

Longboarder:  great points, and as for the lack of bids it's because lots of the longs are already overweight in their profolios since the SP has been getting hammered and manipulated for a few months.  I'm a perfect example of this as I have 95% of my money in Cxr since I've been selling other  holdings, some at a loss, to buy undervalued Cxr shares. At almost 30k

[fdfd12]

95% of your porto is CXR? Are you nuts? Man that is risky. Can you sleep at night? CXR is by far my biggest position at about 16%. I shake when I buy another 1000 shares. You are a confident dude. I hope you are right and quickly. I think there will be no offer until well after their earnings are released.

[Roller007]

Fdfd:  yes it's crazy and was never my intention to put this much stake in Cxr but the SP made no sense and from my stock market experience when something doesn't make sense for an extended period of time then there is manipulation to the up or down. In this case I felt that the manipulation had to do with a takeover which I predicted over a month ago and was blasted on this board for

[Longboarder]

Well said Roller. I agree that many of our fellow longs went overweight when the stock was in the low $30s. What suprises me is that new investors aren't clamoring to get there hands on CXR shares given the recent publicity. I guess the risk of a short term drop in SP is just too much for some investors to handle. Regardless, it will the their loss when the buyout offer is announced. 

[Roller007]

Long boarder :  new investors are very scared of this stock as the blood from the valeant fiasco is still fresh in the street.  Remember the top guys from both companies were the ex biovail gang. Lots of guilt by association.  There is no common sense senario that sees this buyout not happening. The buyer may not be blackstone, that's the only variable here