Concordia Healthcare Corp. T.CXR.R

Donnatal Permanent Impairment

[GenericAdvocate]

Guidance called for flat Donnatal

I predict a  large impairment for Donnatal in Q3

Company will have to reduce guidance and the market will react negatively imo

[cg16]

But GA, we see Donnatal script info reported weekly by RBC and it doesn't support what ur predicting? I think Miehm used the word "stabilized" in his last report.  Certainly still a risk of being yanked by FDA, but Q3 sales should be only as soft as expected from Q2 CC comments and script data. if Miehm's word (stabilized) is correct then there should be no reason to guide

[GenericAdvocate]

You have to consider price in your analysis.  If the company giving it away (coupons for 100% for Donntal) then it doesn't reflect what is going on in the IBS space.  Someone here posted the video from BNN of two independent health care researchers talking about price/volume analysis - you just can't look at scripts form IMS. which is what Meihm does because it doesn't show

[cg16]

The IBS market is also growing at a healthy rate (low 6% high 9% yoy) which should not be disregarded. We will know for sure how its performing at Q3 results. Should be very interesting to watch.

[CounterAttack]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[ryehigh2014]

Donnatal value to intangibles is ~$400MM - look at historical annual statements. For a product which generates 70MM (revised impairment after -14% YTD growth) Revenue annually I think this is fair. The asset is impaired over 15Y - 20Y I do not expect that CXRX will be recording an impairment charge unless a material change occurs (FDA decides to pull it)

[Marky1]

But they already took an impairment charge in Q2.....for Dannatal

[puma1]

I am pretty sure they only paid US$250 million or so for this product in their early days.