12 Month Trailing Ebitda Valuation2021 was a brutal year for oil and gas service industries but 2022 is turning out to be a robust recovery year with energy prices forecast at $100 per barrel which is 50 % higher than 2021.
Forecast Ebitda multiples are also increasing, and Enterprise should merit the 8.1 muliple for microcap energy services sector..
...https://firstpagesage.com/seo-blog/ebitda-multiples-by-industry/
Hindcasting to 2021 when E had just $5.0 in Ebitda, a replicate of 2021 would see E increasing its market cap to $5 X 8.1 = $41 million or about $0.85 per share.
However, E has 3 growth factors pushing its revenue growth in 2022..
1....it has added 3 blue chip energy clients to the 17 large clients previously and more can be expected to be added throughout the year.
2...CAPEX in the energy sector in Canada has been updated to nearly 35 % relative to 2021
3...The new ESG subsidiary is entering a rapidly growing market.
Lets take some simple assumptions about E s growth in 2022..
At 30 % , its Ebitda will increase to $6.5 million consistent with a fair value at peer Ebitda mulktiple of 8.1 $1.10 per share
At 50 % growth, Ebitda will increase to $7.5 millin and a fair value at peer Ebitda of 8.1 of $61 million of $1.25 per share.
You will note that I have kept the Ebitda margin consistent with that of 2021.
As we all know, fixed overhead costs become a smaller proportion of revenues which will boost Ebitda margins.
Secondly, cost compression measures introduced in in 2020 -21 will be in full effect in 2022.
For these reasons, its my view that $1.25 is a conservative estimate of fair value for E in 2022