"Commercialization is not our Forte"Ya think ?
"End of Q3 for Interim Data milestone." We'll see.
35-45% market penetration re-iterated. Dust off your $ 200M EBITDA calcs...and see what you come up with as a reasonable valuation (Pre- Dialco with its $ 13B target market within a few years)
"exceeding expectations" reiterated.
"about 10% of Sepsis cases we can treat" - JK (e.g Gram negative, puncuated by elevated endotoxins)
1.7 million Spesis cases in US in 2017 per CDC.
Realistically given Sepsis growth rates (not incl Covid-19 caused), likely over 2M cases in US per year, in 2022
Add 10% for Canada
Total 2.2 M Sepsis cases annually in NA (not Incl Sepsis caused by Covid -19)
10 % = 220,000 target market
Spectral Target market used = 120,000 per most recent presentation.
Unexplained gap 100,000 ?
Does the GAP grow larger is Covid-19 patients are included.? Covid apparently not going away. Will we have the ability to treat more patients (e.g >.9 with higher capacity filters, or more filters with longer duration of treatment? - as some studies show result in greaer success rates)
Lets assume not for now.
Target Revenue ?
220,000 x 2 col x 7500 = $ 3.3 B USD (= $ 4.125 B @ 1.25 CAD/USD)
Addressable Market per presentation = $ 1.6 B USD
(= 120,000 x 2 col x $ 6750)
Top Line Revenue gap = $ 1.7B USD
Does "exceeding expectations" allow for an increase from the estimated price of $ 6750 /col? Or the oft quoted $ 7,500 per column - given a 30% relative mortality benefit ? and no other FDA approved treatment?
Are we showing our house in the best light? Or is it a little dim and a little unkempt?
MM