Taking the mid-point of Spectral's EBITDA numbers from their presentation
for PMX only of
$ 123M (Page 11 latest presentation - assumes 25% market penetration)
and taking the mid-point of EBITDA multiples for
For Medical technology and healthcare equipment and supplies
of
35 (see earlier post of Industry multiples by Industry)
and assuming
300M shares o/s (fully diluted)
Here's what PMX only should be worth (
assuming FDA approval) the math:
$ 123M USD X 35 / 300M
$ 14.35 USD
Additions to that
- EAA usage worldwide $ 2.10 ( $ 6 M (from Presentation pg 11) x 35 X 3 (ROW) )
- Adding in Canada factor 1.1
Revised valuation factoring in above addtions:
($ 14.35 + $ 2.10) X 1.3 (FX) X 1.1 (incl. Canada)
= $ 23.52 CAD for PMX ONLY, using Spectral numbers, EBITDA multiple midpt, etc. Other factors to consider:
- Sepsis growth for past 5 years (not 2017 CDC stats, pre-Covid) Target market could be 25% higher now
- Dialco Assets (competitor valuations $ 2B, but Dialco may be a "game changer" for HHD)
- Covid factor (i.e. increased incidence of endotoxemia due to Covid) (also higher AKI)
- EAA as a Triage tool (think non culturable bacteria subgroup)
- if PMX becomes the only FDA treatment, should mean penetration will likely much higher. 35% penetration? 45% penetration? higher ?
- discount factor for cash flows
- possible increased price/column with > MB "exceeding expectations"
- possible increased usage per patient (Studies showing 3 col treatment gets better results in many cases)
- Possible eventual usage for patients > .9 EAA (higher capacity filters, longer duration)
- possible Wider label usage due to EDEN Study
The mind boggles.
Not my numbers...Spectral's
MM (math maven)