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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Spectral Medical Inc T.EDT

Alternate Symbol(s):  EDTXF

Spectral develops devices for unmet medical needs. Sepsis occurs in 1.7M Americans/year causing 250K deaths, often caused by endotoxin. Our devices measure and remove endotoxin from the bloodstream. An FDA confirmatory trial is underway. Dialco, a Spectral sub, offers SAMI, a novel instrument for renal replacement, cleared by FDA. Dialco is seeking FDA approval for DIMI a unique home dialysis... see more

TSX:EDT - Post Discussion

Spectral Medical Inc > EBITDA Multiples updated...
View:
Post by mercedesman on Oct 27, 2022 10:53am

EBITDA Multiples updated...

For the Health and pharma Sector's worldwide (by year) are still ranging between

10 and 30 for 2022

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1030111/enterprise-value-to-ebitda-in-the-health-and-pharmaceuticals-sector-worldwide/

Lets use Spectral's presentation EBITDA calc's for PMX using the average of between 35 and 45% penetration, or roughly $ 200M USD

Let's also use THE MOST CONSERVATIVE MULTIPLE to arraive a a "value" for PMX

$ 200M x 10 = $ 2B USD

Say fully diluted is 350M shares

$ 5.71 USD  or   $ 7.71/sh CAD

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1030111/enterprise-value-to-ebitda-in-the-health-and-pharmaceuticals-sector-worldwide/

Remembering that this calc:
  • uses the low end of industry averages (high end = 3X higher)
  • excludes Cdn usage of PMX (add 10% based on population)
  • excludes  EAA revenues (worldwide and usage beyond just in conjunction with PMX)
  • ingnores possible use of PMX for a subset of severe Covid-19 patients (as advocated first by Ronco and now apparently by Kellum)
  • ignores the potential for broader label usage and PMX for other conditions (Eden?)
  • ignores studies showing the advanatage of additional cartridges in many cases (Eden?)
  • ignores the possibility/hypothesis of under-dosing in certain situations (e.g EAA >.9) (Eden?)
  • uses Spectral's EBITDA numbers (includiing >5 year old Sepsis stats for the US) - when we know that Sepsis is definitely on teh increase (some say growing at 8% per year)
Comment by mercedesman on Oct 27, 2022 11:20am
cleaned up spelling, clarifying cerain points,  etc.... EBITDA Multiples for the Health and Pharma Sectors worldwide (by year) are still ranging between 10 and 30 for 2022 https://www.statista.com/statistics/1030111/enterprise-value-to-ebitda-in-the-health-and-pharmaceuticals-sector-worldwide/ Lets use Spectral's presentation EBITDA calc's for PMX using the average of between ...more  
Comment by BayStreetWild on Oct 27, 2022 12:28pm
IR seems to be going well for MercedesMan, Your insinuations, although never having been proved correct in the past, are holding things together... at least until the paper goes free trading. Since you're the only one that actually answers, I figure maybe I can just ask you directly. Given that the FDA predicts 60% enrolment for this trial next fall sometime, and even this estimated date ...more  
Comment by hmmmmmmmm on Oct 27, 2022 1:10pm
How are you so terrible at bashing? Lesson 1. Don't spout off on how you are sitting on cash to buy up cheap shares of the company you are bashing. Can't you see how we might just spot your agenda? Lesson 2. Don't just spout obvious lies. The FDA  report was just posted here last week. In it the FDA lists he Primary End Date or last patient through as September 2023. There is no ...more  
Comment by BayStreetWild on Oct 27, 2022 1:16pm
Study Type  : Interventional  (Clinical Trial) Estimated Enrollment  : 150 participants Allocation: Randomized Intervention Model: Parallel Assignment Intervention Model Description: The subjects will be randomized in a 2:1 ratio to the two groups (PMX cartridge plus ...more  
Comment by mercedesman on Oct 27, 2022 1:56pm
Well BSWild has returned after a short absense. Your Oct 10 post "my last post until next years financing." - didn't age very well. You only lasted 17 days ! Good luck in knocking this thing down to the twenties (or lower) again. Much differnt set of circumstances this time around: much less tax loss selling could be triggered in an "up" year weakest hands left ...more  
Comment by BayStreetWild on Oct 27, 2022 1:17pm
  Actual Study Start Date  : October 17, 2019 Estimated Primary Completion Date  : September 30, 2023 Estimated Study Completion Date  : September 30, 2024  
Comment by BayStreetWild on Oct 27, 2022 1:23pm
I almost think high net worth individuals and funds buy spectral during financings for the tax loss.. kind of like how a company buys new machinery so they don't have to pay tax. 
Comment by BayStreetWild on Oct 27, 2022 1:22pm
And don't get it twisted... these dates have been moved up many times before. I copy and pasted your link for you. Sept 2024 is the estimated trial completion date. Approval date another 4-6 months later right. We're talking about January 2025 here, right? IF, and that's a big IF, everything goes right from here on out. I'd put the costs at roughly $30M Canadian. That's a ...more  
Comment by hmmmmmmmm on Oct 27, 2022 2:26pm
Ha. I called you a liar and instead of disputing it with a link to your 60% bs info- you've posted 5 babbling butt hurt posts.. We'll take you serious now. You are so bad at this that it's quite funny to imagine you're using real money. Are you pretending to not know the difference between "Primary Completion Date" and "Study Completion Date" or do you really ...more  
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