Spectral Medical Inc T.EDT

$ 3 Billion ?

[mercedesman]

Best guess of it's valuation, upon FDA final approval (likelihood between 70 and 95% depending on who you talk to) ?

Should be $ 3B   (Cdn $)

Loosely based on:

$ 2B USD market  annually (their claim) and EBITDA calcs with 40% penetration (using their numbers)

If EDEN works as expected (to widen the label), and dosage is made correct (i.e. increased as a result of RWE, Euphas2, etc.), and Dr.s realize it will have becme the new SOC (i.e no choice but to try to save lives/increase market penetration) and you include Canada (waiting for FDA)

Then I think, with EAA sales worldwide, the market is conservatively $ 3B (USD )

Say $ 4B CAD

Extrapolating 3/4 X sales, as a valuation - seems very reasonable to me....as a treatment for an affliction that is (1) on the increase and (2) has no real other treatment...other than antibiotics (that are running out) 

What they will realize for it from a US major depends on their negotiation skills.

glta
MM

[TechOne]

OK..   Give me $ 10 per share..  LOL.. You might be a tad over optimistic but who knows.. Get the numbers and do the best deal that you can..  Just tired of holding this forever.. 

[mercedesman]

The problem is, I get bigger numbers when I use EBITDA projections and industry averages for multiples on other publicly traded entities. Solving ( even partially) Severe Sepsis caused by Endotoxemia will be HUGE and save many thousands of lives annually.  Whether one believes in the potential, or not, one has only to decide if Spectral will garner more attention as the fDa-day approaches

[ChesterLives]

3Billion for the new standard of care seems reasonable. This is not a crowded market they are entering. PMX will be the one and only. Dr. Kellum has attested to that.

[TechOne]

Certainly, anything is possible if they decisively beat the numbers..  So yeah, valuation has a wide range here and marketcap of $ 3 B and above is not so outrageious..  I just wish, they were already trading on a US exchange.. Properly listed.. Too bad their last annual attempt to get the permission for reverse was not approved by share holders..  Partly because they were asking

[mercedesman]

I wish they showed more effort/skill in bringing investor attention to the story. If that were the case, and they could bring the SP closer to $1 or more, I would be supportive of a RS in the range of 5 - 1 to 10 - 1. Perhaps this will happen naturally when they achieve/surpass the Interim Review period, and some raw top line data is released for investor consumption.  This presumes