Spectral Medical Inc T.EDT

Peeking is very real.

[BlueJays9293]

It can absolutely hurt your final statistical analysis in a big way.

Type 1 error rate is very real in math.

Alpha is very real in math.

P-Value is very real in math.

The scientific method must be adhered to.

On top of that, you have all the PhD trolls that will come out of the woodwork.

Bayesian Statistics is just barely getting accepted as a valid form to argue for FDA approval.

The data and it's analysis, must be kept as pure as possible.

[BlueJays9293]

IF, Baxter wants PMX/EAA to headline their Vantive spinoff, it will optimally happen in March from their perspective/timeline, and NEEDS to happen by April at the latest from their timeline/perspective.     Baxter's lust for PMX/EAA to be part of the Vantive spinoff will likely make it happen in March.   It will most likely be Baxter stock used as the currency. 

[hmmmmmmmm]

My only question is how do they sell a big purchase like that to shareholders and analysts without knowing how the trial is going? Could they tell analysts: We had the opportunity to know exactly how the trial is going- but said No to that, and now want to write a huge check- gambling in the dark. I was on the Vantive IPO train until they told the world they did not look at Tigris trial data

[BlueJays9293]

You only want to "peek" once, at the most, therefore WHEN you "peek" is very important. When, you fire that one bullet that you've got is crucial cuz there ain't a second one. In my opinion, Baxter will use her one peek just before ink dries to paper.

[BlueJays9293]

Don't forget Baxter is as knowledgeable and probably much more so than Spectral about endotoxin and cytokines and PAMPS/DAMPS.  They've been doing very rapid/multiple studies that actually enroll patients on their Oxiris cartridge for a long while now.  Baxter's scientist know much more than Spectral does in my opinion.  How many times you peek is the problem, the

[mercedesman]

Of course peeking penalties are real.  FDA sensitivity is real  Fear of jinxing it is real ( sort of)  But so is the need to preserve as much of the sizzle as possible, for Baxter's benefit and their " moment". In 2 years no one will have heard of Spectral ... kinda like it is now!  And finally, so is the need to compensate insiders with as little cash

[BlueJays9293]

I went back and looked over the Forbes Baxter/Vantive analysis from earlier this month to get the P/E ratio they used for Vantive and also at Spectral's Slide #7 about how much Spectral will profit based on various market penetration rates.   7.5% mkt penetration = 46mm profit. 15% mkt penetration = 93mm profit.  30% mkt penetration = 185mm profit. 40% mkt penetration

[mercedesman]

Of course !  Which  is why the end result will be great despite the giant game of keep-away being played.  here's some extra things you might want to factor in to your Ebitda multiple analysis ( or rather Spectral's)   What should the penetration rate be for a new SOC? Do Docs want to be sued for not applying it? Canada adds 10% to the EBITDA numbers based

[BlueJays9293]

Slow down cowboy, I just finished making a more detailed breakdown of Spectral's slide #7, for myself and also as a cheat sheet for Spectral's negotiation team, just kidding I'm sure they already know this lol.  If you want to know it's potential impact to Vantives market cap, just slap a zero on the end of each profit number.     Now if you or anyone else

[mercedesman]

Ok I'll play along and ignore all the upsides  I'll pick a paltry 35% penetration at a paltry 10X multiple Alex What does your fancy-Dan spreadsheet say the buyout price per share should be assuming 400M shares outstanding ? CAD$ please ! TIA MM

[mercedesman]

Here's a helpful website for those playing along at home with a calculator. Standard Revenue and EBITDA multiples for the medical industry in 2023 - used to arrive at valuations in the M&A industry.  It'll blow your mind.  https://firstpagesage.com/business/pharmaceutical-company-valuation-ebitda-multiples/ MM 

[BlueJays9293]

I think we are missing a big benefit to Vantive, their Prismax CRRT machine represents 50% of all the CRRT machines in hospitals/ICU, the other 50% of the market is machines by Braun & Fresenius et al, now think for a moment, who's machine is going to be the first machine approved for hemoadsorption???     PMX getting approved will drive sales of Prismax and her next

[mercedesman]

Fair point.  And then, if they play their cards right, if they need a new pump for peritoneal dialysis and or Home Dialysis they could lock up ROFR access to a burgeoning technology.  MM