RE:My Latest Thinking on EDVthx Marben for those well thought out comments.
Generally I agree with you regarding a sub-optimal production growth profile looking forward, however the top line is impacted by both production and the PoG. I see the PoG going much higher in the coming years. Further the newer mines coming on board will be, as you say, at a lower cost. The price of oil (a major input cost) has allso fallen substantially in the past year. So the bottom-line could increase even with flat production overall.
So I see it as two pluses (lower cost mines, higher PoG) more than cancelling out one negative (flat production profile with the eventual divestment of BF assets)
If I am right they will be throwing off increasing amounts of cash which can be used to further consolidate near-producing mines in surrounding countries in WA. In other words I see perhaps more M&A activity versus just growing reserves through exploration. They have made it to the top ten league of gold producers, and likely want to stay there. Is there a possibility a big player will take them out? Absolutely. Especially if they become more country-diversified (out of BF).
It's fairly apparent that they see risks in continuing to operate the majority of their mines in BF (as the French withdraw and the Russians move in). Their decision to emphasize Senegal and Cote D'ivoire going forward, is, IMO, a necessary response to unfortunate and changing conditions.
MM