Kinross???Maybe time to dust off, actually the dust hasn't had time to settle yet, on the proposed merger of EDV and Kinross. Now just to be clear, I am maybe one of the least informed people to do this 'analysis?' , but here goes anyway.
I see some synergy in the tie up. For one both companies are more or less losers. Kinross is a half , share price wise , since 2020, definitely not a good look. Losing the big Russian mine, for not much return, really hurt. And Endeavour isn't so much a loser, as just not a winner, with the share price not doing much, up or down, since 2009 even as the company greatly expanded.
EDV will increase production in 2025 to 1.3m oz au , if all goes well. After that there is no clear path forward for furthur increases, just lots of prospects, or maybe buyouts. That small increase doesn't seem like it will cause any excitement. But all there mines are long life, and cheap to operate. Kinross will produce 2m oz au the next few years, with some of the mines being kinda expensive to operate, and some with not great mine lives left.
Edv has great cash flow, and little debt. Kinross has ok cash flow, but lots of debt. Edv has staked the future, on developing nice quality cheap mines, but the dreams some had awhile ago , when they were acquiring stuff left and right, of 2m oz au per year, seem a distant hope these days, sans buyouts.
Kinross has staked the future on Big Bear, in Canada. They paid a hefty price, in some folks opinion, and estimate it could cost a billion to develop, which probably means a fair bit more.
So the synergy. Together the new company would have au production , in 2025, just below Barrick. But Barrick at present has a market cap more than double the combined of EDV and Kinross, so maybe there is a benefit in being big. Note: Barrick also produced a hundred million pounds of copper per qtr, but copper can be espensive to produce so maybe that doesn't add that much to their bottom line. Nevertheless , being the third largest gold company would garner attention. Both EDV and Kinross are at an awkward size.
Endeavors healthy cash flow could fund the building of Big Bear, and help paying off Kinross's big debt. And maybe it would end the West Africa curse for EDV, with the new company also having mines in Canada, USA, and Brazil. Maybe the good numbers that the new company would have wouldn't have the caveat that EDVs good numbers have , that the mines are all in West Africa.
Finally the new company wouldn't be so insider and institutionally owned, which I think is a pretty big negative for EDV.