RE:RE:Do the math over 5 years...Excellent points! I was just doing rough back of the envelope stuff. You're right about several things...the cost of any needed capital will be cheap. That's good. And the contracts will have to include the 5% annual increase in quota so that has to be factored in. And the by-product credits will be a plus offsetting the AISC somewhat. All great points.
The bottom line appears (unless Trump throws everyone a curve) is that the Commerce Department did a good job of trying to scale up this quota, was fair to everyone as much as could be and most importantly made it clear that uranium production domestically is of critical national security. A well done job I think...
Given that UUUU now has a virtual monopoly, the price of uranium will be higher down the road, that future profits can be easily modeled ...the long term looks quite good. Again however I would stress the "long term" Yes, the market is forward looking but it's also impatient. The real sweet spot for the share price will be once the full quota is implemented and UUUU is all ramped up. You're absolutely correct that there could be a big overshoot in my model and UUUU could trade at a premium and if the price of uranium takes off then the share price could exceed my base case by quite a bit.
Given all this...I will hold shares for the next 5 years with a price target of $20...anything greater will be welcome but this still is a fantastic return with little to no downside that I can see