While shares of ENB have performed well, iA Capital Markets analyst Matthew Weekes expects slower growth and other headwinds on performance moving forward
Accordingly, he’s “moving to the sidelines,” lowering his recommendation to “hold” from “buy.”
On Friday, shares of the Calgary-based company rose 1.9 per cent following the premarket release of its fourth-quarter 2021 results. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of $3.69-billion missed both Mr. Weekes’s $3.75-billion estimate and the consensus forecast of $3.78, leaving its full-year EBITDA of $14-billion near the low end of its guidance.
“Distributable cash flow (DCF) per share of $1.23 was strong, resulting in annual DCF [discounted cash flow] per share of $4.96, near the top end of guidance,” the analyst said. “Positives in the quarter included record volumes on the Mainline and contribution from the Moda acquisition, while headwinds included warm weather leading to lower utility demand, the weaker US dollar partially offset by ENB’s hedging program, and a provision related to Mainline tolls under the interim International Joint Toll (IJT).”
After it reiterated its guidance, including adjusted EBITDA of $15.0-$15.6-billion, Mr. Weekes thinks 2022 “should be a strong year for growth,” however he warned it will be increasingly difficult for gains going forward.
“At the midpoint, this represents high single-digit growth, underpinned by a full year of the Line 3 Replacement and the Ingleside Energy Centre (IEC), higher average Mainline volumes, and additional organic growth in the business …but should temper in 2023 and beyond,” he said. “Following a tailwind-heavy year in2022, we expect growth to moderate based on ENB’s secured capital program and normalization of Mainline volumes, which will likely include some attrition to the Trans Mountain Expansion once that pipeline enters service (likely 2023).”
“Mainline tolling will likely re-enter the conversation as the timeline progresses. ENB has re-engaged shippers on tolling options for the Mainline, with the potential for a revised incentive tolling option to be implemented by mid-2023,or a cost of service (COS) framework to be implemented in late-2023. In our view, Mainline tolling represents an overhang of uncertainty that could cause some volatility in the share price as a potential resolution draws nearer.”
Mr. Weekes maintained a $56 target for Enbridge shares. The average target on the Street is $55.77, according to Refinitiv data.
“ENB’s Q4/21 results do not materially change our outlook,” said Mr. Weekes. “However, following the recent strong stock price performance, we are electing to move to a Hold rating as we consider a more moderate pace of projected organic growth, as well as potential headwinds, including volume competition from the Trans Mountain Expansion and uncertainties in Mainline tolling and various US pipelines. While ENB’s stock price has converged to our target price, the shares continue to offer an attractive dividend yield, largely underpinned by stable, contracted or regulated cash flow and earnings. ENB’s balance sheet is strong, and we look forward to potential catalysts that could provide upside to our outlook, being mainly new projects, which are increasingly weighted toward clean and low-carbon energy.”