RE:ETG...when and how much? RioT and their minions at TRQ are still blowing smoke, because I highly doubt they can reach a "majority of the minority" required to approve their deal. Let's wait for Pentwater and Mr. Halbower's telling response.
As for ETG, completely agree TRQ must be off the table before the ETG can o' worms gets opened. Remember we have been stuck with two nuts to crack since 2008 ... "equivalent to IA" treatment, and Mongolia achieving a full 34% interest in all of OT including the JV (perhaps less the SSL royalty). Note in the Licence Fees Agreement ETG agreed to throw our 100% Shivee West land in, but only on a "best efforts" basis. Just like OTLLC's inherited obligation to use "best efforts" to procure similar to their IA treatment under the Earn-In that gave them 80% of HNE and Heruga.
The end-run around further approvals and reopening the series of ownership and funding agreements with Mongolia is to fold ETG into the OTLLC properties. The IA specifically included additional land that was part of the same geological system ... what on earth could that be BUT the JV and ETG's western ground?
And after plying disclosure footsie about a 34% haircut and ongoing discussions among all parties to explain why there is still no finalized JV Agreement or transfer of the two licences covering both the JV and Shivee West, once the arbitration was commenced ETG finally started to assert there should be "no diminution of value" as in we paid over 80% and the IA treatment is pre-paid by that, keep yer paws off our 20%.
Rio Tinto toe-holded into OT and put RF's beauty pageant to an end through ETG, surely with the concordance of significant Mongolian support in important circles. Then even through periods of time where the stock was valued at little more than cash ETG was permitted to grind along, shedding the coal prospects, then the far West tenaments, then Shivee West (conditionally) by best efforts.
As long as the TRQ minority position remains an open valuation question there is almost no prospect for a full valuation of ETG and the JV. The optionality of expansion to hurry-up Lift 2, or Heruga, or expand Lift 1 or accelerate the HNE mining schedule has all been left to drift. But note for the first time in 15 (???) years they are again drilling at HNE.
That first draw bell blasting was the start of a countdown to the truth machine of sustainable production at Hugo North which will indicate the potential profitability stream of HNE - and the macro picture for copper, notwithstanding current angst about FED tightening and recession, has only improved structurally due to climate change urgency, the icing of Russian energy sources, and a long period of underinvestment in new mine capacity.
I know I have been a tireless pumper of the downstream value of ETG amd you might scoff at the timing and cost of timing delays. In the meantime, however, ETG substantially slowed its equity dilution, and the market has offered crazy low price entry points repeatedly as Rio Tinto and Mongolia tried to scare off all competing buyers for OT equity.
Edison estimated north of $3 per share - at lower copper and gold prices, at aggressively generous discount to NPV interest rates, and, a longer time to production. Will Rio and Mongolia try to grind with the scare tactic of no IA treatment or a 34% haircut for the same? Potentially, although Rio's position regarding ETG has never been revealed. In any event a 1/3 discount of something like $4.50 is still $3 plus ... and we don't yet know whether we get that extension of HNE from 725mN to 1300mN ... recall Gregg saying that's what they interpreted as hitting the top of the same mineralized system? Since then smoke and mirrors.
At under $1? This is just the easiest long position to hold because I know it is way over discounted by te market. Market efficiency in a thinly traded special situation with a long history of limited disclosure of critical information? Pfffffttttt!
Now we pop up above $2 as we should have a few months ago and my palms might get a little sweatier because I have way too big an exposure to the Mongolian circus here than is prudent for such a big chunk of my retirement lifestyle. But today, this is a cake walk, albeit a slow one.
But the table is being set to take OT private - in this age of wealth inequality and concentration of capital the only vehicle permitted for little fish like us to own a gem asset like OT with be through a conglomerate portfolio. And the clock is ticking in about six different ways towards our turn to get chucked for cash. How much? If I was Nostradamus I'd tell you. But way more than today, you bet.
cg