RE:RE:RE:RE:Selling Activity Many differences in the situation between TRQ and ETG, but particularly - HCU holds 25% of the entire share float, back out Rio's 16%, that is close to 35% of the free-trading non-Rio shares. Management holds another 5% or so in shares, options and DSU's ... and there are several former insiders who may also continue to hold share positions. Basically the shareholdings are locked-up by parties that know the NPV of the income streams to be expected from HNE Lifts 1 and 2 are significantly understated by the current small volume market trading price. And they also know the JV property has potential to substantially increase its stated reserves plus additional prime exploration targets that have been avoided/neglected for decades.
There is a reason that the 60% share float ... which should represent around 120 million shares, trades so thinly. This stock has been under accumulation for a long time. It only trades at the margin through market makers and some small position holders trading in and out. There are many long hold shareholders, and they udnerstand OT and its downstream potential much better than the level of the discussion that prevailed for TRQ when it was bought out.
Hard to say whether Rio Tinto and the Mongolians can be brought to the table to put forward a fair priced offer to buy out ETG in the near future. Rising copper and gold prices, or the potential for the same, encourage a near-term offer. The pending arbitration may force Rio's hand, or not. Obviously they have shown an unwillingness to make a reasonable buyout offer in the past - probably because of uncertainty concerning the size of Lift 2 HNE, recently because the premium required may be an embarrassment to any continuing valuation proceedings in connection with dissents made in the TRQ buyout, perhaps because of a long-term controversy concerning the meaning and intent of the Earn-In Agreement and the JV about whether a "best efforts" obligation to secure IA treatment for ETG includes the cost or a portion of the cost of securing a 34% interest for Mongolia over ETG's carried interests. Recall in 2009 the accumulated costs of 34% of the IVN assets placed in OTLLC were booked as a loan to Mongolia. Those costs, plus accruing development costs following that date, plus compounding interest were all booked as a liability against Mongolia's 34% until the agreement made by Rio Tinto in 2022 to forgive a total of around $2.2 billion US in order to make a "final, final, finals, no really, final agreement" to commence the block caving undercuts and really start pumping cash out of the mine.
Interesting days ahead for the biggest loose end in OT's financial structure - ETG. It's worth a hell of a lot more than the current implied market cap of $197 million USD at $1.20 CDN/share.
Conclusion "strong buy". So your own DD. And yes, Panam has thrown a chill over everybody about sinking big bucks into distant politically volatile jurisdictions. We'll see.
cg