Projected Demand for Uranium
From the World Nuclear Association (WNA) we take the following numbers as updated January 3rd, 2014. An important point to remember is I’m only going to use demand numbers from ‘future reactors envisaged in specific plans and proposals and expected to be operating by 2030.’
Facts:
- Currently there are 435 reactors operating worldwide producing 375,264MWe. Operable already means connected to the grid.
- Currently there are 71 reactors under construction. Under construction means first concrete for the reactor has been poured, or a major refurbishment under way.
- There are 172 reactors on order or planned. Planned means approvals, funding or major commitment in place, mostly expected in operation within 8-10 years.
- There are 312 reactors proposed. Proposed means specific program or site proposals, expected operation mostly within 16 years.
- Tonnes uranium required for reactors in 2013 = 64,978t
71 reactors under construction + 172 reactors on order or planned + 312 reactors proposed = 555 NEW reactors expected to be connected and supplying power to the grid WITHIN 16 YEARS!
Tonnes uranium required in 2013 was 64,978t, 64,978/435 = 150t uranium per reactor.
555 new reactors times 150t = 83,250t new uranium per year in 16 years.
Adding to that number an industry standard 900 MW LWR typically needs around 350 tons of low enriched uranium fuel on start-up, and about 150t per year after that.
These numbers are driven even higher by the increased demand from the industry for future bigger reactor sizes of up to 1200 MW per power plant.
In 16 years, in 2030, we could be using as much as 148,228t (326,101,600 lb) uranium per year – if all the new reactors are built and no reactors are taken-offline.
World Nuclear Power Reactors & Uranium Requirements