Fission Uranium Corp T.FCU

RE:RE:RE:RE:NXE was on BNN at 8:33AM Pacific - Indicated vs Inferred

[sudzie191]

Quakes - no self respecting NXE short seller or pumper is going to let an opportunity like this NXE top go by without making  a lot of buxs, the pumpers selling the runup and also the shorters to get the run back down.

NXE has had a lot of publicity over the past few days, 2 Globe and Mail articles, Reuters, BNN, the Rosseau hedge fund Warren

THe last assay news, on the stepout was just a repeat of a previous new release, so nothing new, and actually if you look at the detainled drill results, the stepout is not that good, certainly no wheres like the A2 core.

In todays news only 3 drills carry on so 3 are sent home, and presumably no regional drilling found anything reportable

So basically, we have an RPA inferred of the 200 million, and some more inferred potential with the 180 meters stepout. We won't know how much can be added there until there is more infill drilling.

THerefore, in reality we have a nice deposit, 200 million all inferred, and an excessively high market cap for it, consoidering all inferred. Very rsiky, so thats why you see the underwriters selling, they are the smart ones, the buyers getting sucked in. Of course this phenomena has never happened before, lol.  DIstribution at the top, look out below, lol

quakes99 wrote: On the point of an NXE financing... today we are seeing most of the NexGen Underwriters on the sell side.  In fact, apart from ANON, they take up all the largest Net Seller slots in the House Postions.  Cormark, Haywood, Raymond James and Cantor... even Dundee is selling NXE today.   Makes you wonder if the Underwriters have already been in negotiations on a financing...??

House Positions for C:NXE from 20160404 to 20160404

House	Bought	$Val	Ave	Sold	$Val	Ave	Net	$Net
7 TD Sec	989,448	2,021,466	2.043	468,263	964,187	2.059	521,185	-1,057,279
79 CIBC	411,782	829,574	2.015	124,750	256,213	2.054	287,032	-573,361
85 Scotia	418,908	852,653	2.035	228,550	464,935	2.034	190,358	-387,718
9 BMO Nesbitt	492,310	1,001,748	2.035	306,710	626,817	2.044	185,600	-374,931
2 RBC	679,515	1,380,171	2.031	494,390	1,009,416	2.042	185,125	-370,755
58 Qtrade	79,550	165,179	2.076	13,750	28,415	2.067	65,800	-136,764
33 Canaccord	179,300	367,265	2.048	114,300	235,419	2.06	65,000	-131,846
22 Fidelity	48,578	98,404	2.026	1,000	2,040	2.04	47,578	-96,364
15 UBS	37,300	75,867	2.034	0			37,300	-75,867
80 National Bank	45,200	91,944	2.034	11,462	23,260	2.029	33,738	-68,684
83 Mackie	29,000	59,215	2.042	0			29,000	-59,215
124 Questrade	30,499	62,256	2.041	7,000	14,544	2.078	23,499	-47,712
72 Credit Suisse	12,875	26,559	2.063	0			12,875	-26,559
53 Morgan Stanley	11,500	22,946	1.995	0			11,500	-22,946
68 Leede	10,800	22,512	2.084	0			10,800	-22,512
14 ITG	10,000	20,500	2.05	0			10,000	-20,500
19 Desjardins	30,000	62,464	2.082	20,200	41,358	2.047	9,800	-21,106
39 Merrill Lynch	38,200	76,600	2.005	32,500	65,769	2.024	5,700	-10,831
59 PI	14,322	29,753	2.077	9,728	19,561	2.011	4,594	-10,192
90 Barclays	3,400	6,834	2.01	0			3,400	-6,834
88 Credential	2,625	5,360	2.042	500	1,040	2.08	2,125	-4,320
57 Interactive	180	363	2.017	0			180	-363
3 AltaCorp	10,000	20,400	2.04	10,000	20,250	2.025	0	-150
28 BBS	2,596	5,297	2.04	3,000	6,150	2.05	-404	853
25 Odlum	2,000	4,180	2.09	5,000	10,400	2.08	-3,000	6,220
101 SG Capital	4,200	8,316	1.98	8,400	16,963	2.019	-4,200	8,647
143 Pershing	12,340	24,945	2.021	16,650	32,746	1.967	-4,310	7,801
95 Wolverton	12,000	25,100	2.092	18,500	38,045	2.056	-6,500	12,945
27 Dundee	0			10,000	20,000	2.00	-10,000	20,000
99 Jitney	301,500	615,132	2.04	333,500	679,116	2.036	-32,000	63,984
13 Instinet	188,900	384,970	2.038	225,500	458,326	2.032	-36,600	73,356
89 Raymond James	536,200	1,100,933	2.053	585,550	1,197,154	2.044	-49,350	96,221
4 Cantor Fitz	0			77,600	155,248	2.001	-77,600	155,248
62 Haywood	40,000	81,600	2.04	205,100	419,044	2.043	-165,100	337,444
73 Cormark	240,100	475,398	1.98	536,100	1,076,363	2.008	-296,000	600,965
1 Anonymous	965,175	1,959,555	2.03	2,022,300	4,102,680	2.029	-1,057,125	2,143,125
TOTAL	5,890,303	11,985,459	2.035	5,890,303	11,985,459	2.035	0	0

The biggest Net Buyers are the daytrader brokers... which in itself must give some pause for thought.

Cheers!

Gigantapithic wrote: Good banter. 


With respect to the spacing’s if NXE is getting the same bang for buck (shareprice/market cap) with inferred vs. indicated they might as well keep at it. Having the share price where it is at is very useful for raising money. Every explorer has to do it and if you can do it when you're near 52 week or all-time highs all the better. I think I’d be a bit more concerned about the FCU shareprice if we were in the position of needing to raise money. The CGN investment came at the right time. Maybe a little later for increasing the winter program, but still at a crucial time. Would be nice to see some recovery. 

quakes99 wrote: Thanks for that synopsis, LL.  I'll be sure to watch that later.   As my analysis on the weekend showed, the market is pricing Fission and NexGen about the same right now at CA$3/lb for Indicated+Inferred with no premium for Indicated, on that expectation that all the Inferred will be converted by the time a PFS or PEA is produced.  The market is also ignoring cash, and I think it is because they expect Fission to be spending a large part on a PFS within the next year, which offsets NexGen's need to raise more cash in order to prove the Indicated... so by the time both companies have done a PFS the cash positions may be similar.  Could be something like that.

As to reducing 50m spacings down to 25m... that still isn't narrow enough to produce a high level of Indicated... but it may be enough to perhaps get to 30-50% Indicated... which may be enough to satisfy an acquirer.  However, if you look at the history of Cameco's delineation efforts you'll find that they err on the side of caution and use tightly spaced holes.  For proving up McArthur River they used 10m steps to fully define the mineable resource.  Fission is using 15m and getting 75% Indicated. 

The point to remember is that ALL Inferred resource is excluded from a PFS... but I suspect that the way the promotion continues to ramp up (Raymond James just put out a new report encouraging Cameco to take out NXE ASAP) that they hope they will not be the ones to have to do that infill in the end... that the buyer will take responsibility for that.  Can't imagine, though, that a major would be willing to pay full price for a project that is still quite a long way from what is needed for a full Feasibility Study.  The added expense for further delineation drilling would most certainly bring down the $/lb offer, imho.

As to Enviromental Assessment spending, it seems to me that, with the expectation that Arrow will definitely be mined, shaft sinking sooner rather than later would be a big advantage in more quickly delineating the ore bodies from underground surveys.  It took 2 years for Cameco to get a permit to sink a shaft at McArthur, because government requirements are for an Environmental Impact Study to be completed as well as consultation with all levels of government and local communities, prior to issuing a shaft sinking permit.   Getting the ball rolling on that now might yield a more rapid turnaround as Saskatchewan is looking for economic stimulus for the west basin, and so a quicker permitting process might occur.   Trying to do 10-15m delineation drilling from the surface is very expensive and slow.  Once a shaft is sunk then the process would go much faster and they could achieve high levels of Indicated needed for the PFS to be done on schedule.  Just my own thoughts...

Always appreciate your thoughtful contributions to the board!

LinkLeisure wrote: Was a good interview with Leigh on BNN this morning.  They even went over 3 Bear Factors and let Leigh refute them.

How is this relevant to FCU?  Well my question of late is how much IS indicated versus inferred worth?  What is, if any, the premium value of an indicated pound versus an inferred one? Right now the market is not really giving the FCU Indicated a higher value versus an NXE inferred.  Leigh addressed the step outs of 50 meters and how they are cutting that in half with infill drilling at 25 meter intervals between the previous step out.  He mentioned, I think, 80 of 82 holes hitting on the main resource area.  AND implied that this is why he is not concerned about inferred versus indicated, because he sees continued hit rate in the 25 meter infill drilling and even higher grades than the original holes.  Perhaps that is why NXE is being valued as if holes are indicated and non inferred.....

I thought he spoke well, and doubt he would go on BNN and say those things if he didn't mean them.  Just like I think Dev really thought FCU was worth $3 a year ago (yes, based on more historical $/pound Athabasca Uranium deals).....I happen to still think that, but what do I know, lol.

the other thing I found of interest is that Leigh says they still plan and PEA in 2017.  So, I imagine that means he feels they will have enough infill drilling done and can use indicated pounds at that point, if indeed Indicated pounds are required to issue an offical PEA.  

Is there such a thing as a company issued unofficial PEA?  Is 25 meter step outs, with a Uranium zone structure that NXE has, enough to convert inferred into indicated.  It does seem that FCU has to drill more holes (it is a wider discovery), albeit shallower ones, to build up pounds.

So, perhaps the structure of nXE makes it easier to switch from inferred to indicated.  I don't know.  It would seem, that for now at least, the market is confident the NXE pounds will turn out to be there, unlike other company stories we have heard.  Also, maybe it won't cost as much for NXE to infill drill as it does for other companies - and maybe that is reflected in share price.

Like I have said before, I remain curious if FCU will not worry about indicated as much now and do slighly wider step out holes, or does the geography of FCU zones require smaller step outs, with the benefit that most of the results then fall into indicated anyway.....Perhaps they will try to continue to differentiate themselves as shallow and indicated high grade pounds - their brand, so to speak.

i did not get the felling NXE planned to do more than cut the 50m step outs in half as part of infill drilling, from what Leigh was saying on TV this morning.

Was interesting.  NXE is spending money on Environmental, etc as well now to prepare for PEA - so that is something that starts to drain the coffers, as we've seen on FCU.

I am looking forward to the massive and re-targetted summer drill season that FCU will likely launch.

I continue to feel FCU is significantly undervalued, but if we are trying to explain the difference in valuation, maybe some of what Leigh had to say would explain that, in addition to the general momentum NXE has and other reasons that have been floated by other posters.  Usually not just one thing.

NXE was up quite a bit earlier on decent volume...