RE:RE:RE:Today's share price Hey Juru,
I don't think the FCU share price reflects the likely updated RE. More importantly, I don't think the market understands the true low cost nature of mining PLS with an open pit.
NXE has a lot of pros, no doubt, the rich and concentrated nature of it make it super economical.
BUT, investors should look at the open pit cost numbers for FCU. UNDER $2/pound. The $14 or so cost is for mining ALL of the pounds - which is fine long-term if SPOT is $70......then of course, all of it would be mined.
The under $2 is for the pounds already in RE and PEA and don't reflect all the shallow, high grades pounds under land found since the RE NOR the high grade holes that expanded 780E .....
The OPEX numbers should come WAY down from already staggeringly low levels. The average cost at NXE came in slighly better, but if you look at the open pit mining costs for FCU - which has become a no brainer - and the overall mining plan requiring a complete overhaul becuase of the finds at 840W and 1515W - it is a whole new ball game. I can't imagine any plan that doesn't start an open pit on the west side with material used for the berm, and such - a deferal of CAPEX for mining under the lake, etc - the already great economics become great.
UNDER $2 pound for mining open pit pounds.......and now we have two significant pods SHALLOW, and UNDER LAND, to improve economics more. That is why I think the different valuations per pound indicate a buying opportunity still and a valuation discrepancy.
If I was marketing a product, I would be PROMOTING the shockingly low open pit mining costs at FCU. That is what differentiates the deposit. With shared CAPEX - just mining those easier open pit pounds excluding anything found in last 2+ years, makes sense even at $26 Spot price. If you didn't care about more expensive pounds, then that is probably cheaper to mine than the Khazaks can mine at, just becuase of the density and grade....
I think updated RE would be around 185 Million if 1515 is included and the recent geotech holes that were super rich at 780E are also included (probably more likely than 1515W)....
That should move the needle from both a pound perspective AND from an economics perspective.
The most recent 2 zones of discovery to the WEST are supreme. Concentrated, high grade, with no lake complications, that are shallow and basement rock hosted. UMM. Best in world. What a place to get a mine started - and the nice thing is there are plenty more spots in area to sink drills into to see if there are significantly more pounds around.
Just my thoughts - high grade, shallow, basement hosted pounds starting 50-100 meters under land are SUPER valuable relative to any other pounds deeper or under water at FCU or elsewhere. And that is not really reflected in share price yet in my opinion.
Nobody is forced to mine more expensive pounds. There are plenty of U finds and deposits that haven't been mined, nor may never be mined because there are better options. All the money made by some investors on Hathor which received $9-$11 per pound buyout price. Does anyone think FCU and NXE will be mined AFTER Hathor? Miner doesn't have to mine every pound they can pick and choose and time that. Mine cheap ones while price is low, and mine more expensive ones if and when U price makes it worthwhile.....
I think the 'average" cost is misleading at PLS for FCU. I really think, that post updated RE and each time they find significant pounds to west, under land - they should update and differentiate the costs between the open pit mining costs per pound and the more expensive under ground pounds.......