RE:RE:Fuel loading has begun for CGN's 1st 1750MW EPR Reactor"Chinese think ahead"
I think you answered your own question right there.
My point being (and I'm not Quakes, lol - nor am I Negan - nerds will get that), China is an ancient nation - they understand medium and long-term goals. They are ok with investing NOW for reward 30-50 years in the future, even if the person pulling the trigger won't be alive to reap the benefits.
Western Nations have severe difficultly with this politically. Everything is short term - you might have 4 years to implement policy and then it can get overturned by the next Party in power trying to please whatever the next lobby group is that can keep them in power, or paying back the voting group that got them into powerin the first place. Add to that, we live in a world of IMMEDIATE GRATIFICATION. Invest in a Uranium Junior Miner?- why bother - I am awesome at timing the market - I will jump in 3 days before it truly turns around (more than 50% of traders time it wrong, but that is beside the point).
Add to that, investors and advisors have changed the definition of a "long" from a 5-10 year INVESTOR to a 1-3 day speculator/day trader ......I have seen post after post on this board where people that have purchased FCU shares either lost interest or sold their shares in last 2-3 years because they didn't get the return they wanted - which is rational and fine - but the time horizon they gave themselves was historically fairly short considering the cyclical length of commodity markets. The deposit didn't get worse - it consistently got better - but the macro picture scared them away. A successful junior miner neighbour also took some of the shine away.
It is about time frame. This way of thinking can create long cycles and lower lows and higher highs - which also creates opportunity.
I think people do "see the writing" I just don't think they are patient enough to buy now, when it still might take a little time - time that you, yourself, has predicted might still be 2-3 years out. I think many want to buy something else now (maybe weed stocks?) and then plunge into U in 2 years. They figure, I can catch the train then.......Maybe they are right? Many follow the lifecycle of a mining stock chart and probably feel we are at the bottom until much closer to production. I am hoping when there is recovery the Junior miners,(especially the top tier ones with economical, high grade, deposits in safe jurisdiction), like FCU will have the extra leverage to provide higher returns than existing producers - hence I am in an FCU more than Cameco. These are risky stocks, I want multi-baggers in terms of returns - I am willing to wait and be patient.
I think the Spot market is similar - no purchasers seem to want long-term contracts right now - to the point that I actually sometimes wonder if there won't be a spot AND a futures market, but mainly just spot....I doubt it, but the coverage for future demand is getting lower and lower as we have seen by the charts....no incentive to enter into many future contracts until Spot consistently and significantly rises in price. History has shown, that when U Spot price moves, it can move FAST and exponentially.
I agree - you don't build 75 year lifespan reactors for billions of dollars and not intend to buy Uranium to feed them. I know of no easy or cost saving way to convert a nuclear reactor to a different tech - so, likely going to need traditional U. And, as you say, some of these are BIG, powerful, HUNGRY reactors being built.
The U market is also relatively small and specialized, and Uranium/Nuclear has all sorts of negative and scary connotation - so there is that stigma too....More potential money for those willing to get hands dirty or radioactive I guess, lol