RE:RE:RE:2017 PRODUCTION NUMBERS .... FROM WNAHave to agree that the Kaz's are tough to trust - they said they'd cut production to a certain level and that moved spot up a bit and then they probably sold more than they said they would on the Spot market again. They have been trying to build market share for years by undercutting the prices the rest of the world would prefer to sell at (or can even mine at)- that is a time tested -and most people would say "fair" - business strategy. So, at 40% market share - I think they accomplished their goal and I would expect that they do have a lot of U reserves still - otherwise they are REALLY bad at business and we will all get 5 times as rich as we already hope to investing in U - LOL. (if the Kaz's are running out of U - Athatbascan Basin is worth $1 Trillion sheesh). Didn't they say they would cut 10% and now it turned out it was only 5%?
I had mentioned that in some of my previous posts - the spot over supply continuation and varied/uncertain forecasts, etc - very much depends on what these largest U miners/sellers guys are doing - and the slow improvement of Spot price and/or distrust/inefficiency of the market in valuing U spot ( I don't feel the market is all that efficient at times) has a lot to do with their lack of transparency and not being forthright.
That is why I love these new companies buying on Spot to creatie supplies of U and Cameco doing the same. Long overdue. U producers let Kaz's eat their lunch for too long - they should have "colluded" and ganged up on them buying their undercutting supply long ago.....but things got exaserbated with Fukishima on both the supply and demand sides unexpectedly. I think the uncertaintly as to what level of supply is out there has far more to do with the word and actual selling by the Kaz's than Japan at this point (I still need to research more about why some of the Japanese u stockpiles apparently can't be sold again - as that is contrary to all the orignal reports as to why there was spot oversupply - not sure what the true % is unusable in other reactors. Does show how little the U market is really understood by majority of the few journalists and analysts that work or focus on the sector though - again - this can make it far riskier to invest here and also potentially so much more lucrative!
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I think with the new developments and pending IPO for the Kaz's - they will have less incentive to take this flooding market approach - they will begin harming themselves. Also, they open themselves up to more scrutiny from investors and regulatory boards - and public/government scrutiny and questions. Kind of like the Japanese or then Koreans selling cars for super cheap - they built up market share around the world over decades and now sell hgiher quality at a much larger margin - the same should be happening with the Kaz's - they shouldn't want to sell on tiny margin any more - the goal of gaining market share is less important moving forward - making better ROE is! That "should" change behaviour quite a bit.