Fission on US Market higher than FCU on TSX - other thoughtsI think it was at 0.50US and with each US dollar worth $1.3 CDN that makes it 0.65 CDN equivalent.
Yet, we were flat at 0.63 CDN today.
Arbitrage opporunity for 2 cents, Canadian of 3.175%.
NXE and DML were up 4% today, but FCU lagged again - not much attention right now or someone is still trying to keep price down maybe...
I just find it a bit weird sometimes, on this stock. Are there really that many weak hands left.
On the other thread I think it was long-time basher "Shrink" saying FCU doesn't have the pounds to be another Cameco, ROFL. They just stopped exploratory drilling. FCU probably has double pounds it currently has found - every time they drill on conductor to West they find more, shallower, and under land....they just started being conservative with cash. Less exciting but prudent, and probably why DML and NXE are seeing a bit more excitement at moment.
I continue to hope Dev and Ross don't sell UNTIL we are fully in swing in a bull market, and even then, I hope they spin out another Company to shareholders in all the areas not yet fully drilled. The economics of this WHOLE company will be understated as soon as the pre-feasability study is released, because of the shallow pounds found under land to the West.
The PFS won't reflect that because it can only use indicated, not inferred pounds, so the mine plan and related economics still needs the dyke and 780E as focus. In reality, I am guessing anyone mining this will start open pit and dig the shallow under land pounds first, delaying costs and achieving economies of scale, using materia dug from West to build Dyke to East, etc...
That alone hugely improves economics, let all the additional pounds not yet found....
Almost have to look at the FCU story as 780E and east as one mine, and then I really hope the buyer values the Western part of conductor towards boulder field, because that is a game changer, and I really hope we don't give it away.
Frustrating thing is we didn't have another $30 Million to drill the heck out of the two most Western zone and keep exploring to the boulder field - but I accept it, because more dillution would kill stock price at this time, and adding debt yet doesn't make sense.
Dev mentioned a couple of things in recent interviews. He mentioned the penny pinching, finally admitting they have been cutting costs (2 board members for a number of months, and office staff). They stopped exploratory drilling and cut way back on expension drilling, and had slimmed down for a couple of seasons before that.
He even mentioned adding some debt in, probably at end of 2019 - which he feels is when they will start to be getting low on cash - he at least knows not to do a float of shares when very undervalued. I liked hearing that - he talked about doing what "neighbours/peers" had done in debt markets. CGN sounded on board with that - and could help financing I'm sure.
China can only own 49% - that is law in Canada right now, so any buyout in entirety would require a Canadian partner i think - and Cameco is selling (Wheeler River share) not buying at moment.
I do think a merge with NXE makes sense long-term, they will share mill and infastructure anyway - since they can throw rocks at each others zones pretty much - and are on exact same conductor - people forget this - yes, might be 1 or 2 km away, but that is a short walk, sheesh!
One thing Dev said, and I'm not sure about - because he could be in "salesman" mode - but he mentioned Fission is 2 years ahead of peers in permitting process, which if you go back and look at timeline is true, BUT, he added that competitor next door NXE can't catch up really - and I can't fully agree with this, because NXE, DML, and Fission ALL have PFS's planned for end of this year....so how have they not caught up mostly anyway. I know that is not permit applications, but certainly much of the testing needed for a pfs leads in that direction too, and at one point NXE was at least 18 months behind in drilling, etc. Now they have spent a lot more money lately to drill a lot more holes than FCU....
So, it remains to be seen if FCU is polished and ready to be sold prior to DML or NXE and/or if these 3 merge, which I honesty think would create by far the BEST young Uranium company in the world......
In retrospect, while I voted against the merge at the time, thinking U recovery would be much sooner, AND that FCU has far richer and shallower deposits in the ground (which I still do, just hasn't been drilled yet), the merge with DML would have been good for both FCU and DML at this point. They would be a larger and more diversified company to compete with NXE. Hindsight is 20/20 of course, and perhaps, should FCU resume much more aggressive drilling to west of property and add a lot more indicated, shallow, high grade, land based U - then we will get past the merge conversion value, but since DML is trading higher than FCU at moment......times have changed, or fcu remains very undervalued compared to peers. We shall see what end up being true.....
But, Dev and Ross - don't give this Company away. I'd rather not spend a dime and wait for $75U spot/future prices and sell then.....Will remain to be seen how many patient longs hold shares that would vote to do that, or how many would jump on a lowball offer. In that regard, I like that Chinese are on board as partner (although they do what is in THERE best interest - one has to be careful) - BUT - they are long-term thinkers - they did not buy into FCU to flip it, they bought in to have a 10-20 year resource to fuel their massive growing fleet of reactors from a stable and reliable high grade mining district!
Rambling here, but man this remains a cheap buy here with Spot having gone from $19 to $27...and further derisking being accomplished (still hitting 100% at 780E and converting inferred to indicated pounds) and 2 holes in 2018 likely being BEST in world mining holes over ALL industries.
Yet, share price just languishes. So WEIRD.......