RE: 44 Bcf InjectionYou are right, the gas in storage looks bearish. Everything being equal, the price of natural gas should be equal or lower than last year. Fortunately for us, this year differs significantly from last year. The price of oil is much higher. The long range forecast for this winter is for cloder than normal winter. There is however considerable risk. The price of crude could drop, or winter could turn out to be mild.
Longer term, natural gas production in the US has peaked. In spite of a 40% increase in drilling activity, production has been declining. In fact the majors in the US have given up on increasing domestic production and have now focused their attention on importing LNG.
Here are some sites I check regularly for weather
https://grads.iges.org/pix/temp1.html
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/cdus/degree_days/wsahddy.txt
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/cdus/degree_days/wsacddy.txt
And a site that has some useful analysis
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/cdus/degree_days/wsacddy.txt
Finally, any ivestment carries risk to minimize your risk in the energy sector, you pick companies with high growth rates. Both my largest holdings (CMT and FEL) are expected to grow their production substantially. Both are also credible candidates for trust conversion, all IMHO of course.