RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:PI Financial target - $1.50 Agreed Opt, but I want to elaborate a bit on the Efficient Market Hypothesis which has been touched on by a couple people, with my perspective. Here's a link to help explain if anyone isn't familiar; https://www.morningstar.com/InvGlossary/efficient_market_hypothesis_definition_what_is.aspx
What's important about that definition is that it at least acknowledges the different degrees of EMH. There is certainly some truths in the theory, but most of the time I've seen it talked about, it generally gives people the wrong idea, IMHO. Many things in the market are asymmetrical (experience, time, skill, strategy, perspective), but nothing more-so than access to information. The different degrees of the EMH focus on assumptions of how this information is spread through and known to the market.
I agree that the market is always right, because I acknowledge what a market is. Price in the market is nothing more than a representation all available information, filtered through the strategies and perspectives of independent entities. While the difference is subtle and easy to misunderstand, the implications to successfully managing risk are significant. I think the idea of EMH is solid, but I also believe that many go wrong by using it as a crutch to arrive at a singular conclusion.
If you sum it up to the market is right, or the market is wrong, then you're likely never going to get an intimate understanding of why or how the market moves. To be fair, saying, "the market is always right," isn't 100% accurate either, because as Tom said, the market simply is what it is. It's not actually right, it's just that it can't be wrong. It's people, investors, that are wrong.
The first thing you can do is to understand yourself. Learn from your failures to anticipate your short-comings. Understand your actions, what you could have done differently and why things didn't go as expected. This gives you a personal and direct insight into investor psychology.
Eventually, you start to relate this to the behavior of other investors and begin to pick up on trends and patterns of market (investor) behavior. As time goes on, you can recognize and utilize these asymmetries in the market to your advantage, most importantly, by recognizing when you're at an asymmetrical disadvantage to other market participants and protecting yourself against unexpected risks.
This is one way how you build advantageous strategies that you can refine and use to your advantage for decades to come (if that's your goal). You typically can't directly learn anything from the action of a market (whether it is right or wrong), but with an understanding of your investment, you can interpret, based on what information is known to the market, what factors are influencing the direction of the movement. Once you have a read on the expectations of investors, you can contrast this to your own expectations and weigh them against each-other to see if the action is defying your expecations. If it is, then you might need to re-evaluate your risk profile. Otherwise, take it into consideration and maintain your hubris.
How does this translate to Supreme? Well, that's for you to decide. I only want to say that by keeping this idea in mind, I've anticipated both of the declines to new lows that we've had leading into Q2 ER. I'm not trying to toot my own horn, because I merely acknowledged, by watching the action of the market, that investors don't seem ready to turn this ship around. Not that it was going to drop further, but rather that it was a real possibility.
I'll throw out some baseless predictions again, with this in mind. I don't think we're going to new lows before the ER and despite what others have said, I'm actually a little more confident in the ER now than I was a week ago. Making trades based on speculation like this isn't part of my current strategy, so take it with a grain of salt, but I actually would have done much better with this investment had I had the gall to go with my gut. Regardless, I hope that my strategy has still positioned me best to take advantage of all possibilities. We shall see.
I did say I don't think we will see new lows before the ER, but that's a pretty bold statement considering this is one of the ugliest sell-offs I've seen in quite a while, and a pretty weak rally to boot. I mentioned hubris again here, so I'll also close this off by offering what I consider an accurate definition of the word since Vulcan asked before and I think the narrative of my posts has been somewhat cohesive enough that it still applies.
"English picked up both the concept of hubris and the term for that particular brand of cockiness from the ancient Greeks, who considered hubris a dangerous character flaw capable of provoking the wrath of the gods. In classical Greek tragedy, hubris was often a fatal shortcoming that brought about the fall of the tragic hero. Typically, overconfidence led the hero to attempt to overstep the boundaries of human limitations and assume a godlike status, and the gods inevitably humbled the offender with a sharp reminder of his or her mortality."
You will hear it time and time again from even the most successful investors, but you must always be mindful of your hubris. Even the greatest investors of all time, have their stories about early in their career where they struggled with this. Even if 100/100 trades in a row are winners, if you don't protect yourself for the 101st, it could be the end of your career. This happens when you least expect it and often comes if you've been blinded by success. The difference that allows the best of the best to find long-term success, is that they learn from their mistakes and rebuild from scratch if necessary, but they never give up and always persevere. Hubris is essential to success, but moderation and awareness are essential to longevity.
Hopefully this post is more insightful than it is tedious and tiresome,
Sincerely,
-Dubby