Supreme Cannabis Company Inc. (The) T.FIRE

FIRE Shorts to Apr16/20

[OptGreen]

Short action for FIRE trending down and will be non existant as the sales/ revenues are realized, starting with Q3/20, JMHO...Opt

DATE

S. SALE TRADES

% TOTAL TRADES

S. TRADED VOL.

% TOT. VOL.

S. TRADED VAL.

% TOT. VAL.

Apr 16 2020

799

12.053

1,313,867

14.096

368,890

14.018

Apr 1 2020

2,327

18.452

5,179,144

19.426

1,285,388

19.562

Mar 16 2020

1,553

19.997

2,560,763

18.315

655,182

19.512

Mar 2 2020

2,205

23.523

4,975,441

24.105

1,773,654

24.671

Feb 17 2020

2,797

21.327

6,364,778

23.784

2,701,312

23.821

Feb 3 2020

2,699

27.490

6,251,704

29.281

3,417,213

28.969

Jan 16 2020

2,982

22.411

6,634,028

21.147

3,516,974

21.362

Jan 1 2020

2,179

23.395

4,231,050

26.689

2,697,437

26.917

[johnale]

Look at the last two value/shares shorted -  .25cents? .28cents average-  those trades are not in the money right now. plus 11.6 mil shares short as of april 5 with not a lot of volume. Seems like they are trying to cover without making the price rise too much. holding it below .30 and picking up whatever shares they can slowly.  when they cover as much as they can - this will

[Method]

you could be right. If they are long the bonds, they can keep shorting. It's not like it's going to get away from them.  it sets up good if there is an equity issue after results. At least there will be some buyers.  

[johnale]

ya won't get away from them in the short run. not much volume and really - not much buying from retail.  but when the quarterly numbers show up and we have some colour on guidance - well see how the market reacts.  Right now - sentiment is poor in the sector - and fire has underhwlemed the last 2 quarters.  Most have a cursory review of sector - not many im sure are diving as

[OptGreen]

Underwhelmed joh, they are the proverbial elephant in the sector at least for a while and until the numbers justify of course....the rest in the sector are in varying degrees of 'right sizing' while FIRE is right sized and starting to come together and execute, they will underwhelm if they come in with something like ~$15mil for current quarter, we don't want any bad karma here

[OptGreen]

Agreed joh and their window is going to close soon....the paltry volume is going to squeeze them hard in the meantime as the MM is going to start moving the SP north as soon as the numbers are in line with guidance estimates and the growth going forward is a given as they ramp up to full production. Today's technicals show resistance found at $1.42, the first time it has been that high in

[Method]

The "MM" is the market maker?

[OptGreen]

That's correct Meth and they will not be moving the SP until the company is ready to support the move north and sustain it, There will be real volumes traded and the SP will head north hard, with the  extremely undervalued SP levels of late, JMHO...Opt

[Method]

In all my years at an investment bank, market makers never had any impact on a stock price but you know better than I do. That has been established.  The other MM will have a bigger impact on the share price, I think. They are the ones who own ~80% of the FIRE.DB  But, I hope you are right.

[OptGreen]

Thanks again Meth, a friend and I were just talking about much the same situation but in a totally different discipline. That history ended up in a precedent setting case, hardly the situation here but many similarities just the same. FIRE will do just fine for those that own, as always it is, JMHO...Opt

[Method]

Thanks Opt, so profound that I have no idea what you are talking about.

[johnale]

you said before that mmcap wanted shares of fire?  they just scouped 100mil worth of aphria before the great earnings.  what happens when mmcap finds out fire will be able to pay for the debenture with free cash flow and some new debt issue.  does that not eliminate their need to hedge and short the equity? would they buy up shares in the open market to establish the position

[OptGreen]

APHA's shorting has picked up since the beginning of March, trending the opposite of FIRE...and FIRE hasn't started to deliver yet? It would appear FIRE is expected to be delivering a pretty sweet balance sheet for the quarter, while there is plenty of work ahead to right size for many in the sector. JMHO....Opt DATE S. SALE TRADES % TOTAL TRADES S. TRADED VOL

[Method]

[johnale]

BMO pressured hexo - but they didn't raise until the last minute basically.  didn't work out for them. but they also are a way different company structure. their losses are incredible - and looks unlikely that they will be profitable. their products lacked quality too.  I still say fire can wait - especially as demand is increasing significantly. things change quickly. 

[Method]

Who is "we" in this context? If I was them I would do a small equity raise after every quarter and do an SIB on FIRE.DB for the first one at least. But I am risk averse, biased and not prophetic like yourself. Not sure what you meant on HEXO with the last minute raise. Their debt facility isn't due until 2022 but the bank was nervous. Hopefully that doesn't happen with FIRE

[johnale]

hexo is running out of money! they raised money in a last ditch effort to stave off bankruptcy. it's a completely different situation.  Now your talking about a more reasonable risk adverse approach. with regards to supreme.  small raises after each quarter and start buying the debentures below par.  that's a reality that equity holders can live with - and allows the

[Method]

They had over $100m in cash at the end of last quarter but the burn rate is high. FIRE has also has a high burn rate to date. Hopefully, you are right and they reduce that burn rate going forward. I'm sure HEXO is trying to do the same.

[OptGreen]

Still at it there Meth, time is running thin for this bullshite as sales numbers will be starting to come out over the coming weeks....and I know you are 'hopeful you are wrong' because you keep spewing that vomit daily as you try to spread fear. The shorting of the sector et al has nothing to do with FIRE, of which their short action has been dropping off since Dec/19 restructuring

[Method]

The burn rate has been high versus cash on hand to date. They spent $60m so far this year between negative operating cash flows and capex which is more cash than they have on hand. I think they will reduce their cash burn with the restructuring and slow down on capex but recall the context of my statement was that HEXO was also forced to raise equity despite having cash on hand. All that BS

[Vulcan]

your really a great sales person for you debentures.. not many of us are slightly interested.. shorts are an issue. enlighten us what is hularious about people's concerns.. you have many similarities to brent.. just a dif angle genius jmho cheers

[johnale]

last line of Fire Q2 financials:  Fully funded to execute on all planned initiatives. hexos Q2 financials -  comparing fire to hexo is misleading - and BMO didn't force them to do anything.  For the six months ended January 31, 2020, the Company reported a loss of $358,298, including impairment charges of $250,850 related to goodwill, intangible assets, and

[OptGreen]

Like I said and you couldn't wrap your tiny mind around the first time,,,,I, along with many, have sat and listened to the self proclaimed elite waste time telling everyone how brilliant they were over several meetings, of which cost more in fees and expenses than an upper end middleclass yearly income, and in the end, once past the bullshite of the lost we ended correcting situations and

[Method]

You talk about the debenture like it has the return and the risk of a t-bill. I have a value investing approach and I assume you have a growth investor approach or something akin to that. I assume that's where we differ. I look at risk/reward and you focus on reward and liquidity. That is, if you and johnale have similar strategies and I am not claiming you do and I know you do not speak for

[maritimedreamer]

Opt, from my undestanding we have seen an increase in short positions since Dec 2019 where right now i believe we are at the highest recorded (?) 12.2 mil. That said, who holds the shorts and why? do retail really have ability to short this stock this low? i suspect not....... deep pockets know supreme has a strong future.  

[Method]

Why do you think if the "deep pockets know supreme has a strong future", the bonds aren't trading at 90 (~12% YTM) or more? The most outspoken bulls on the board aren't that confident about their forecasts so they need liquidity as a hedge but deep pockets can't generally count on liquidity so why wouldn't they buy the debentures if they basically offer "free money

[Vulcan]

forget your debentures.. forget shorting... can you see the positives. this company has been on the right path long b4 competitors.. quality has proven in demand.. on and in just share with us your positices on supreme cheers

[johnale]

I think the shorts saw the preliminary shelf filed and double downed.  but I contacted supreme about it a while back -  this was the response:  based on this - I don't think the shorts are going to get what they want in the near term - and we are shaping up for a future squeeze IMO.  Thanks for the questions on this. The company does maintain a strong liquidity

[OptGreen]

Agreed joh sales appear to be very good and much better is expected and I have gotten the same positive feedback on the funding in place since January....this restructuring in Nov/Dec has been when put together from the jump and everytime I have asked a question related to funding the response has been consistant. At first it was hope but the way everything was set up and executed since December,

[johnale]

Ya Colin definitely knows how to run a ship. IR joked with me that he was very good at cutting cost - and re-structured and right sized very quickly.  Then he quickly pivoted to accelerating their revenue growth - cost effectively with humble and fume too.  He is first class for sure demand continues to be very strong, and handf have been able to march on and continue to push

[maritimedreamer]

Johnale, was it from supreme that said demand continued to be strong or was this your educated guess? Ie were these their words or yours?  I really wonder what the hold up is for pax...those really need to hit the bc shelves ASAP....not sure how long it would be to be in all markets.....these next two q's are basically make it or break it...

[brentkosta]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[OptGreen]

I was refering to the short trading volume md, the chart info covered from Jan1/20 and the trend is clearly down, please post or send info if you don't mind. Hard to imagine there would be more shorting when production and sales are increasing and should be setting new highs going forward? It would be very dangerous for the average investor to be holding short with the trading volume a few