Supreme Cannabis Company Inc. (The) T.FIRE

Conference call

[Method]

Some key highlights:

- They said they were 3% market share in July in Ontario, BC and Alberta (if I heard that right). I think those three provinces are around $150m in sales/month so for a quarter that would be $13.5m in sales from those three provinces. 

- not surprisingly based on the above they also said that rec sales will grow sequentially from Q4 to Q1.

- incremental cash gross margin was 66% (if I heard that right). A significant amount of new sales should drop to the EBITDA line.

- they also expressed confidence in being able to hurdle the EBITDA minimums set in the credit agreement which is encouraging. The threshold for Dec'21 is $2m for example.

[Munny23]

Liked what I heard. Hoping for a dip and over-reaction as I will buy more. 

[nearnorth101]

yes 3% is what was said, very impressive, hopefully if things go as planned the will be profitable by Q3 2021. Sales for Q1 $15M would be great. this is not a company on the verge of bankruptcy as some of the low life want people to believe, they are on track to being a well run profitable buisness. 

[vulcan123456789]

thanks for update I didnt listen in myself

[nearnorth101]

vulcan, the CC will be uploaded on their website later today

[vulcan123456789]

ok great thank you very much

[theTransporter]

Method - Regarding the highlighted below, I heard the same figure (could have been 64%) but that margin is based on overall average.  I great news is I see that margin rapidly growing as they sell more and more retail product and less and less of the wholesale.  The selling prices for the two are drastically different and if a greater portion of the product they sell is in retail, that

[Method]

That's a fair point.  What did you think of the 3% market share number for July? Weren't sales in those three provinces around $150m in July?  

[theTransporter]

That sounds right for those three provinces, however you can't simply take 3% of the $150M and say that is their revenue.  That revenue is topline at the retail level.  You'll need to back out the margins made by the retail/distribution channels.  

[Method]

what do you think that works out to? 

[johnale]

JULY sales was 231.6mil  Beena said alberta market share was -  highway hash grabbed 5.8% market share for that product. (smaller market though)  pax pods were 2% market share.  so considering they are on the lower end for vapes - they should make up that market share on dried flower 3%+  so conceivably - you can make the assumption you are 3% market share across the

[George141]

..then there is the shipments to Israel which could grow...

[StayInvested]

She didn't refer to 30% as a number, she referenced the June/20 quarter as a comparable for this current quarter in terms of recreational growth.  Minute 37ish I think. It was a question posed by the second analyst I believe.  My estimates are Net Revenue, not gross for future reference. This is in response to Opt.  I'm typically very conservative.

[Dunworkin2]

I didn't listen to the call, but with 5 days left in Q1, she knows what 99% of Q1 revenues are looking like, she has to. So why not just provide a range?  If she said 30% growth QoQ, we have the Q1 revenue number. 

[JiffBeasauce]

She seems like she just wants the numbers to do the talking no need to make forcasts or useless PR to pump up SP. example she sold 2 mill to Isreal and dident say a thing, could have easily talked about it , could have already told us how much costs are down but waited till end of quarter. I believe at some point some one referanced an email they got from IR saying things along those lines.

[George141]

..In the past little bits of info were given...and it did not move the SP. sometimes it was a "market down day" other times some unrelated bad news from another competitor dragged us down. Timing is almost as important as the news itself,...well almost. There is allways the possibility that they are working on a large deal with Israel and there may be reasons for not bringing it up...I

[johnale]

Ya I hear you - I did listen again to that second question - at 27 min - she didn't quite commit to any number, and or language was vague - just that they were continuing to gain 'traction'. So im just going to say its 'unknown'.   Ill give you a second perspective as per growth -  with some numbers.  Q4 showed canadian rec total of 619.1mil for april/may/June.&

[OptGreen]

Mostly cleanup in this one joh not much to see yet, should be much more coming in FQ1/21 but the main thing is that Beena now has a very good picture of the under belly of this company and she is as bullish on the furture now as she was before...but better because she can see first hand it is not only doable but maybe better than what was first thought. We will be getting the straight goods here

[nearnorth101]

From what we know from q4 financials and the CC , I think 15M for Q1 21 is very realistic