Supreme Cannabis Company Inc. (The) T.FIRE

anaylst

[vulcan123456789]

just read current estimate and rating.. buy to strong buy no sells.. target in higher range .70 this will only go up as q1 q2 q3 reported.. it appears they see us on the right path with beena .. that's a great return as it is with todays price.. I'll be buying more.. jmho cheers

[RealistGhost21]

Yea yea I know but please can you tell us how you are going to buy more with no money left dude unless you are already rich.I can say that you are not rich because rich investor do not waste time here on this board because Supreme doesn't have volume  at all. So do you know why OptGreen(Vulcan)? It is because the shareholders of this compagny are small investors and they can't trade

[vulcan123456789]

I'm fine dude font worry I still have dry powder...

[johnale]

Which analyst report did you see Vulcan?  can you copy paste the outlook? And forward revenue estimates?  thanks. 

[vulcan123456789]

google supreme anylist.. its investing.com .. looks to be a consensus of anylist. buy and strong buy ratings.. high estimate .70 in next 12 months hope that goes up more with q1.. cheers

[StayInvested]

According to that site, they have 2 buy ratings and 4 neutral. The strong buy indicators seem to be from a technical perspective. Concensus is $0.41/S for 2021.

[vulcan123456789]

the high rating was .70 like I said.. I exspect that to again change perhaps higher when q1 out

[RealistGhost21]

Wow this is hard news for OptGreen alias Vulcan who got his share at over $2 dollars CAD. Heavy bag holder lol.

[theTransporter]

Canaccord put out a report downgrading the target price from $0.50 to $0.25. Poor Madelin, Supreme's IR Manager who has to deal with daddy's analyst making her job harder by downgrading the target price.

[Munny23]

You know, they always base it on the current sp. trading at .15, obviously they will downgrade. its common sense bud, stop pumping fear. Bankruptcy is t an issue anymore and they will increase sales as that is what all the indicators are pointing too. Once this hits .25-.30 they will upgrade their targets.

[StayInvested]

Sorry, was this directed at me? I didn't pump any fear (unless reality makes you fearful), I just posted to actual statistics from the site that was quoted.  

[johnale]

So just as a recap stayinvested -  wholesale sales are still there providing some revenues. As well into q1 - I comfirmed they were still open.  We are expecting some good rec growth.  supreme beat your expectations by 18-35% on revenue bc of that wholesale.  operations are leaner than ever.  are you adding to your position? 

[watchmeplz]

How does it make PROFIT? we know acb which has more sales doesn't make a profit, please explain johnale. 

[StayInvested]

Aurora isn't really a great comparable to Supreme, and they don't make money because of massive operational and financing related costs.  Johnale - I am going to see how the next two weeks play out in terms of volume and price stability, but if it remains in the .14-.16 range, I may add another 30-40k in shares. I agree that from what they are *telling* us, it would appear that it

[watchmeplz]

In my opinion, They cut there their capex by a third and still are still taking a loss, basically same situation as here. Surely, you need capex otherwise there's no growth correct? So, if you don't grow then how do you value the company at almost 70mil? More production, more growth is the answer right? Well you need capex for any which direction you choose, if you can't figure out why

[StayInvested]

You only need capital expenditures if you are looking for growth once your current assets/resources are nearing either their expected useful life (servers, software, tech), or are finite and you need to discover more (mining/natural resource). Capex across industries are different for different reason, I'm not sure why Supreme would need to accelerate capex right now, considering they are

[theTransporter]

No cap-x spending required until they can sell 100% of what they can physically produce out of their Kincardin facility without any increases in inventory. If they can do the above, they can easily afford any cap-x expenditures for another facility as required.

[watchmeplz]

In my opinion, so what your telling me is there's NO growth opportunities and furthermore have a debt that secures the entire facility but still sitting at 70 million market cap valuation? is that what your saying? You need growth to justify market cap my man, or a net that proves valuation, hoop dreams that you got involved with, was last years news, nows the 'prove it' phase and not

[StayInvested]

It's not telling you much other than the market was massively over-hyped, and some retail investors got roped. I remember speaking to people at the time (ex-C suite guys from banks) and all they would say is "there will be a lot of tears before this is over". There was a reason they were stating that, it was due to over zealous multiples and forecasts. Supreme has had growth, quite

[theTransporter]

Current valuation isn't pricing in the fully funded facility pumping out and selling 100% of what it can produce.  They presently ARE NOT pumping out and selling 100% of what they can produce.  There is quite some growth in revenue to be had out of the existing fully funded facility without having to spend any more cap-X into achieving that desired result. $9M quarter is still a

[watchmeplz]

In my opinion, So your forecasting a 50% net profit? A normal company is lucky to have a 10% net profit and that's with no royalties (aka. Provincial,federal,municipal tax) do you think there is a reason canopy leveraged themselves out of facilities, same reason they don't use all the rooms here? How do you say they need no capex? What if they need to divert to the only somewhat profitable

[vulcan123456789]

your wrong again watch...nobody goes in business for 10 percent.. standard would be 50 to 100 mark up..and many bus are much more

[TOP3STOCKS]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[puppymonkeybaby]

I think we finally understand how Vulcan and Trans lost all their money in this stock. Believing SUpreme would coast along at a 50% margin. 

[watchmeplz]

In my opinion, just shows you why people are still invested, they just don't understand.  Vulc, simple thought, -15% (provincial tax) off gross, do you understand what that does to your bottom line, what that does to your net? It's basically having a partner you never knew existed. 

[vulcan123456789]

does not every bus have to pay taxes... it's a cost of doing bus.. like anything else

[vulcan123456789]

I've owned a few bus myself I should also note that it is a right off on your exspenses

[watchmeplz]

In my opinion, enough said, this is your investor pool right here folks.  

[puppymonkeybaby]

LOL

[OptGreen]

Still slithering around leaking bullshite I see pup but let's lighten the load here..."understand" finally please, you obviously understand shite. The only way to lose here is holding short or for you and the rest of the barking lowlife is to not hang in for the nickel, we will all will definately be extremely jealous. Be strong, don't let a positive report or two and profit

[watchmeplz]

Says the guy saying this was a good buy at $2. Nice call. 

[vulcan123456789]

I think you watch puppy ghost can put the tax cry to bash supreme to bed.. everyone here has explained it's a none issue. go to work come back with something else..

[theTransporter]

Agreed they will need to service and pay their debt. My $200M per year is based on 40,000kg being sold at an average of $5 per gram.  Profit is based on 70% margin on revenues (they did 64% cash margin on Q4 after you remove the "one time" adjustments) and will only get leaner as they produce more.  Then I factored in $60M operating cost per year (Q4 was $12M operating cost

[watchmeplz]

In my opinion, that's gross profit not net. Just alone from 1 provincial tax of 15% on 200m is 30mil, which blows your margins upside down, then federal exercise tax, stamp tax, municipal tax all off top line revenue and finally if there was income, then income tax. There's not a hope in hell this is going to run a 50% net profit. In perspective, if the company net 10mil after

[vulcan123456789]

how right you are trans.. as well add truverra for export as well as other products and again add blissco. which will be a going concern.. oils are top shelf as well as flower.. add again the Kraft. there is a lot of potential.. also gov does not seem too anxious for another lock down..every day that goes by gives humble and fume in store opprotunities to push sales and line up new opprotunities

[Method]

  Aren't the FIRE.DB still a better play than the common since they are trading so close to conversion value?

[StayInvested]

They are if you believe that the equity is range bound for a significant period of time. I think last I saw the effective rate on the debentures was what, 13%? I don't know if the debs will accrete at the same rate as the equity if 2021 become their breakout year. Meaning, I think the equity at .14/S may be able to double from the current level by years end, not sure the debs will give you 100

[Method]

I don't see how the equity can outperform the debentures since the are convertible at 28.5 cents. If the stock doubles to 28 cents, the debentures will trade at at least 28/28.5 or 98 because of the riskless arb. Also, 16% current yield at 50, plus 22% in accretion debentures. 

[StayInvested]

Sure the initial debentures can convert at that price, but you will get only 1 interest payment (march.9th/21)if that's the case. The accreted debs have to be held until 2025. So if you are OK with having your capital tied up in those debentures over 5 years, cool. They are non-convertible from the sedar documents I've read until that date. So to me it's a wash, if you convert your

[Method]

You get the 16% current yield while you wait for the stock to lift plus your bid/ask is protected by the arbitrage and it's tighter on a percentage basis than the common for the most part. You will get paid your accrued interest when you sell. The accretion debentures are an afterthought really.  I'm surprised it's controversial but that's what makes a market. I don't

[OptGreen]

Agreed joh, but where is is all the fear nonsense coming from besides the nickels...there is no info to base any of it on besides the tel con and the report which are both very positive on the company today and going forward. Beena has laid it all out and is very bullish on profitability in the and moving to full production in the near term....now either she has lost her mind or she is flat out

[johnale]

All we really have to go off of is Beenas note of 3% market share in July.  I think production and pack dates will have some limited use - because they will be keeping product fresh on the regular. Production is meeting demand - and lots of different products now.  Compared to q4 I think our market share went up 17-20% just in July with the market increasing 22.7%.  If you

[OptGreen]

Agreed joh but there would be much more positive all around if they were listening/ reading what Beena provided...the 'analysts' seem to be consistent and will be on the low side of the actual as they were for FQ4/20. Based on the increase for July from Beena, while assuming reasonable increases for Aug and Sept as well due to increasing access by H&F, increased efficiencies in

[vulcan123456789]

fully agree opt.. I had to buy in once again today at this price.. wont last long ..q1 as I said all along will show marked improvements in operation and revenue...q2 and those onward will only shine the spotlight on what we have here and what beena is accomplishing.. we have all read the year end.. I recommend reading it again and again.. each time it seems the picture becomes more clear and more

[George141]

...it is guaranteed for sales to go up...why? pandemic second wave is upon us, people are staying home watching movies, travel is limited..besides where can you go?...prices on pot has been lowered, putting pressure on black market. Generally speaking in times of doom and gloom "sin stocks" like alcohol, tobacco go up...pot will as well. Supreme is the most advanced company trading at

[vulcan123456789]

well said george. the price right now is a once and a lifetime opprotunity .. everything is moving in the right direction.. the data that was shared about humble and fume and their progress.. since that was revealed how much more progress has been made in q1.. someone mentioned once about their employees have quotas.. and bonuses for targets met. these guys are money driven...they will be pushing

[Method]

  Madelin left about a month ago.