RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:As always, Supreme gains the LEAST in this rally Thanks for the reponses Opt and BK,
I agree a lot with what you've had to say (BK). I don't necessarily see the negatives as you do, because I haven't been along for the journey of underperformance as you've put it. My research into this industry only started about a month or two ago, and even then there are only a couple that have popped onto my radar. To me, Supreme looks good, and their roadmap is solid, but it comes down to execution. I'm not near as confident as Opt or others about the near guarantee that all will go swimmingly.
"I would (and am) more comfortable diverting funds to the likes of APHA or a a solid extractor."
I'm happy that you said that, because I agree entirely, and everybody should stick to their strategy when diversifying and hedging risk in the sector. I actually edited APHA out of my post when I compared FIRE to other [undervalued] equities in the sector, to remain more neutral. Other than those two, I keep a float between two extractors (MediPharm, Organigram).
That said, averaging down isn't only a reactionary tool. I'm not sure what your allocation goal was for FIRE, but if you haven't met your maximum target, one more dip is perfect for finishing an overweight position, allowing much more freedom to trade capitulations in an upswing. You also said a, "starter position," so I can't be sure of your strategy.
As far as where I see then next quarter, I'm far from an expert. I usually come from the approach of looking for the deviation from the mean. In this case, that's a quarter of uncertainty and hemoraging (the current trend), shaking out the remainders of the past and then returning on the path to all time highs as they meet their guidance. I don't necessarily see them going any higher, and not with certainty as others have stated. I'll be mostly out by then, anyway, if all goes well.
I personally don't see anything that should stop them from meeting their guidance, but I understand your skepticism. It's been hard to see what the real picture is from last quarter, but from the build up in inventory alone by the start of the Q, hitting that 30m mark you mentioned shouldn't be an issue. I think they do have a competitive advantage, but they haven't finished establishing it yet.