RE:Saudi Market Share Oil War of 1986... Look at the chart
I have read a couple of articles lately (sorry, no links) that covered past oil shocks and they pointed out that they often occur in brief moments when the producers fall out of synch with demand. The longer the market believes oil will hover at 40-45$ more and more producers will adjust production lower which in turn could provoke future imbalances with the growing demand between now and 2017 which will then create oil price spikes. Compound this with world events and oil shocks could happen relatively fast and outside the context of war.