RE:RE:RE:Market forecasts. touareg,
As far as I can see there is a lot of shoddy BS research or lack of research involved in the issue of interest rates and gold.
I recommend this essay by Adam Hamilton, from last year, which sheds some light on this area.
https://www.321gold.com/editorials/hamilton/hamilton070513.html
While interest rates have an impact on gold, the most important issue is real (inflation adjusted) interest rates and there is absolutely no doubt that negative real rates are gold positive.
The FED is totally committed to a negative real interest rate world, since financing the huge US national debt requires inflating away the obligation to pay back the debt.
The big question is whether the FED can continue to manipulate the market to negative real rates.
Will they be successful in this endeavor?
We will soon find out.
Though negative real rates punishes savers, most Americans are debtors and welcome negative real rates.
The big factors that drive the POG are not yearly supply and demand factors like mine production and jewelry and coin investment demand.
Large investors and speculators move into gold based on real interest rates, the yield curve, inflationary expectations, and fear associated with risk in the financial system.
Gold went from $250 in 2001 to over $1900 in 2011 because of these factors and will have meaningful rallies going forward based on these factors.
goldguy