Known Bismuth reserves will end around 2040Quite the claim, but that's what the attached paper claims given that the photovoltaic sector is experiencing +26% exponential growth, does not recover much of the used bismuth and soldering alloys using Bismuth are about to reach industrial deployment levels soon. The interest that 12% of the global bismuth reserves in a stable safe environment must generate! Some excerpts of the paper ...
… PV sector is to boom
Photovoltaic (PV) sector is a well-established renewable energy source and is currently
experiencing exponential growth (+26% in 2022 [7]). …
… Low-temperature (<200 °C) alloys suitable for temperature sensitive cell technologies such as Silicon Hetero Junction (SHJ) or emerging Perovskite/Silicon tandem cells are usually made from Sn and Lead (Pb) or Sn Ag Cu or Sn with Indium (In) alloys …
For toxicity reasons, Pb is to be substituted by Bi in these low-temperature soldering alloys to align with other electronic sectors already compliant with REACH regulations …
Ag, In and
Bi scarcity will limit drastically PV deployment whatever the cell technology mix is between Passivated Emitter and Rear Cell (PERC), Tunnel Oxide Passivated CONntact (TOPCon), and SHJ. … Bi reserves volume is not estimated by USGS since 2017 as it is only produced as byproduct of Pb, Zinc or Tungsten [21]. According to these estimations,
worldwide demands for these metals would deplete all reserves by 2050 (or even shorter term), to the exception of Al. …
One may also notice that Bi or In are only produced as by products of other more common elements (Pb, Zinc, Sulfur…)[21]. As PV sector relies on these materials or perceives them as promising substitutes, such as Bi instead of Pb for low temperature soldering alloys, it makes it depending on the hosting ore material’s market and trends. …
Another raising concern deals with Bi availability [10,41] with approaching market share increase of SHJ and ToPCON cells. Even though Bi is rarely used in industrial soldering alloys, it is to substitute Pb in standard soldering alloys formulations like Sn Bi Ag.
Most of these soldering alloys are to reach industrial deployment step soon. The reason for this change is the end of the derogation PV sector enjoys from Reglementation of Hazardous Substances regulation [42]. Beyond their geological rarity, those materials are highly critical due to their dispersive applications:
even though PV sector requires a limited amount of Bi and Sn, they are almost not recovered when used as metallization or soldering alloys.
These applications must evolve otherwise the known reserves will end around 2040. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/378104745_Critical_materials_and_PV_cells_interconnection https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlelanding/2021/ee/d1ee01814k