Scenarios/Targets?Just curious what people think are the potential outcomes and the associated target prices for those outcomes... the obvious ones are:
1. Sibanye opts out and we retain 80% of the resource. Bigger piece of the delicious Marathon pie, but the challenge then goes to sources of funding.
2. Sibanye opts in, and we retain 51% of the amazing resouce, so less than 80%, but the upside being that it is mostly being funded by Sibanye, kind of like having someone else pay to build YOUR dream home, lol.
3. Sibanye just buys us out to get 100% of the resource. They would have to pay a fair price under the circumstances as there would be a great deal of scrutiny around the deal given the unique arrangement. As others said here, what is a fair price? $3, $4, $5?
In all three scenarios I see the share price going up because I think the uncertainty around this arrangement with Sibayne has put a lid on the stock... investors don't like uncertainty. A decision in three weeks puts an end to that uncertainty.
Cheers,
Cpac.