Q1/24 Preview: Fine-tuning The Income Tax Expense Line Our Conclusion
GFL is reporting Q1/24 results on May 1. We take this opportunity to fine-
tune the seasonality in our tax expense forecast. Note, our revenue, adj.
EBITDA, and adj. FCF estimates are unchanged. We maintain our
Outperformer rating and $58 price target.
Key Points
Model Update: We take this opportunity to fine-tune the seasonality in our
tax expense forecast. Our 2024E adj. EPS goes to $1.16 (from $1.24) and
our Q1/24E adj. EPS goes to -$0.26 (from $0.08).
Q1/24 Preview: GFL is reporting Q1/24 results on May 1 with a call the
following day at 8:30 a.m. ET. Dial-in numbers are: 1-833-950-0062 and 1-
833-470-1428 (access code: 726645). For the quarter, we are forecasting
revenue of $1.77B versus $1.80B a year ago and consensus of $1.78B. We
expect adj. EBITDA of $440MM, flat Y/Y and versus consensus of $441MM.
We expect an adj. EBITDA margin of 24.9%, up 38 bps Y/Y, versus
consensus of 24.8%. We will be listening for the following on the call: 1) we
believe that GFL is tracking ahead of its 2024 targets and is positioned to
raise its guidance, which is currently adjusted EBITDA of $2.215B and FCF
of $525MM; 2) comments on the pricing and volume environment; 3) a
commitment to its 2024 capital allocation plan; 4) an update on GFL’s
deleveraging plans; and 5) comments on sustainability investments,
including progress on constructions and earnings contributions.