RE: at the worst we''''ll be bought outCalifDreaming. Your thoughtful detailed input most appreciated. Also, pleased you refer to GMI Ni Ore tolling into GMI FeNi at Falcondo, which nb to max GMI profits. GMI is where the profits should be concentrated, hence, as an e.g., Glencore may invest in GMI. Re a CVRD Falcondo, Xstrata would end up with substantial CVRD shares & CVRD with substantial GMI shares.
Xstrata recent graph shows Falcondo cost as ~$5/lb Ni in FeNi. This based on high crude oil price, much lower Ni ore grades than you reference, substantial lost FeNi capacity due to fast growing sub-ore (waste) & some FeNi theft. Not sure if $5 includes some or all of Falcondo’s +50% taxes, which should not apply to GMI Ni.
Glad we seem to agree on GMI holding out for a many times today’s SP, as such is not dreaming.