RE:RE:EPS 2020-2021wagyusteak wrote: Snowballgrowth wrote: We know that over long term only the EPS will drive the stock price much higher. I saw an analyst has a 0.33 $ EPS forecast for 2021. Do you think it is realistic ?
I would focus on the free cash flows. EPS are wildly affected by financial assets. FCF will give us a better picture. Assuming they can reorganize GBT to become a better and leaner organization and they can find some revenue synergies, they could make
$100mil FCF in 5 years. if the stock price remains flat until that, the market cap will be about $800-$900mil (assum they bought back another 10%).
That's 8x-9x FCF ~ 12.5% - 11% FCF yield, pretty cheap, given that the interest rate is almost 0%. So, the only way for the yield to go down is the stock price has to go up. Anyway, my expectation is either we make our money through special dividend+share buyback(if the stock price remains flat) or the stock price will go up to drive down the FCF yield.
Good input, I like the numbers :)
Like GUD, the analyst uses "earning ajusted" so likely very close to FCF, right ?
$ 100 M FCF in 5 years could be fantastic Other acquisitions could add to the optimistics scenario