RE:Shifting To A Lower Gear The present consensus appears to suggest an average of $90 WTI for 2023. Supply is inelastic and demand is expected to grow by ~2 mmbbl/d.
Pessimism rules but summer driving season, jet fuel and diesel consumption may surprise. From my perspective, consumers are not dissuaded from holidaying by high fuel prices.China is the swing demand component. Europe needs to refill storage that is at 55% now. They were lucky with a mild winter but need to fill storage levels as insurance for the chance of a cold winter. The ENSO oscillation commonly referred to as "el nina" and "el nino" is expected to revert this year, bringing changing weather patterns.