Ausies Update El NinoSummary: Tropical Pacific Ocean warmest since 2002 El Niño
Central equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures have continued to warm over the past two weeks, and are now at their highest levels since at least the El Niño event of 2002. Similarly, the 30-day Southern Oscillation Index is lower than at any time since 2005. Leading climate models suggest tropical ocean temperatures will remain above El Niño thresholds into the first quarter of 2010.
A sustained weakening of the Trade Winds during October and early November enabled central Pacific equatorial temperatures to rise up to 2°C above normal. However, average to stronger than average Trade Winds currently over the western Pacific may curtail any further warming during the next fortnight. The distribution of tropical cloud has similarities to the patterns observed in the 2002 and 2006 El Niño events, while recent rainfall patterns over Australia are typical of mature El Niño conditions.
Despite a warming of the oceans to Australia's northwest over the past week, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), as measured by the Dipole Mode Index (DMI), is neutral. The Bureau's POAMA model suggests neutral IOD conditions will persist over the coming months.
https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/