How long until backwardation of the pricecurve? What the heck is it going to take to get the near month contract above the next? In all seriousness I ask these questions and remind anyone interested that in no way am I a natgas bull. I just want to trade.
Reason I'm asking these questions specifically is that a tradeable "turn" in the underlying price structure relation between the various contracts would, I hazard to guess, bring about optimum conditions for HNU traders. Biggest money is in getting a trend correct, but with HNU one must still trade like mad (better yet, correctly) within any trend.
I guess not many here see this scenario as likely in the near term? Gotta admit however that amounts to little if experience has taught us anything about the market. Lastly, if we do get a doomsday scenario in the natgas futures with "nobid" etc, then my bet has to be that natgas can go nowhere but up. Those are the reasons I'm quite serious about backwardation scenario for natgas---and not just increasing near month contract price. Can anybody outline a scenario inwhich backwardation could happen?
Skip, thanks for the clarification.