-134 forecast I've been doing some temperature averages for Chicago and New York, and averaging each day's high and lows for the ENTIRE WEEK in the reports, and seeing the relationship in the resulting drawdowns. I compared the average temps for this report, to the warm week we had reflected on the Feb 21 report where we drew down 127 bcf.
Chicago: Average highs for this report week were 2.5C lower than Feb 21, and the lows were 0.5C lower.
New York: Average highs for this report week were 1.5C HIGHER than Feb 21, and the lows were 2C HIGHER.
With New York area being the more highly populated of the two, it would seem that more people experienced higher temperatures for the upcoming report with estimated drawdown of 134bcf, than during the week with an actual drawdown of 127bcf. Meaning the drawdown should not only be less than the estimate of 134bcf, but less than 127 as well.
Therefore I will keep holding HND through the storage report in hopes of some aggressive NG price action to the downside. This is VERY simplistic research so do your own DD, but I'm all in HND through the report.