RE:RE:RE:Mat1791Chris_toronto wrote: Mine would be HOD at this point in time.
I'm not really bearish the September oil contract but if I could short the June which hit ~$27 recently I would in a heartbeat take that gamble.
Storage is approaching max capacity, delivery of June WTI is due soon and COVID-19 playing its worst case scenario on a global basis.
I know USO has some June and July oil. Anybody know if it has an inverse? Or some other inverse (near spot oil) ETF? SCO??
Mat1791 wrote: mostlylose wrote: Hey Mat, very impressed with your knowledge. If you had to put all your eggs in one basket to ride the (hopefully) oil price comeback, which etf or stock would you go with?
Mostlylose,
I might have educated myself on how these commodity etfs work, but I have no more knowledge than anyone else on where thing will go, or what direction.
IMO, I first came to HOU because I thought oil would rise, and the 2X leverage interested me. I still feel oil in the next 6-9 months will end up somewhere between $35-$45.
I'm not interested in energy companies, long term I dont like the industry, and I don't have the time to research each company's financials. I am only interested in playing the rise of the commodity price.
Since HUC is going to flip from Dec2020 to Dec2021 the beginning of June, I feel there is more gap to be rewarded with using HOU. I'm hoping that they remain on Sept2020s and get back to rolling into the 2nd futures beginning of August. Leverage would also be a nice addition.
Anyways, my 2 cents, no crystal ball...do your own diligence
I'm with you on the front or 2nd contract. Can for sure see a supply issue as we get closer to front rollover. Everything was broken, nothing to play short term contracts....
However, I'm still thinking that with a diminished demand picture throughout the summer (but better then present), current supply cuts kicking in, and the beginning of production failures and shut downs, oil, wishfully, could still settle in the 30 - 35ish for late summer early fall.
Squeeze out maybe 10-15% on the Sep2020 by early Aug, at the same time hoping that the short to mid term curve flattens. August brings further healing, HOU goes back to 2nd contract and rolls from Sept to Oct with 2X leverage, and flat curve has little decay.
and a partridge in a pear tree...