RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:This Widowmaker Connn Tango! Great points Midget, and that's the crux of HVU (which is essentially a short on the S&P). I tried staying away from predicting the future and stick to mechanics for Murray, but here's a bit of what I see.
I hold HVU because long term I see an S&P chart that exactly replicates the chart of 07 into 08. Exactly. I also see a current S&P chart that is rolling over with lower highs and lower lows, winding up 1 more bear market rally on horridly low volume. I also see S&P right around the 78.6% fib retracement in that rally, and a market that fell over 300 points from a measily 0.25% (more like 0.13% in reality) courtesy of Lord Janet. And I personally think the market is an overstimulated meth addict that needs a pound of blow to hit a new high, so flat rates, 0% rates or even negative rates will be like a sip of beer; no effect due to immunity. I also know when fear takes over, it shrugs off everything in its wake (ex: TARP Oct 08, market didn't bottom till March 09). Finally I see more people than ever calling for all time highs, "return to normal", "the bottom is in" which is synonomous to any bull trap I've ever seen.
Sadly, I also see the possibility for Lord Janet to actually be proactive and blast QE4 before panic sets in (hyperinflation). Technically, I also see potentials of a bull flag, and a 14day moving average that just passed it's 200day counterpart (golden cross).
Summary: My money is where my sentiment is and my limit is approx 2080 on S&P if Contango doesn't scare me away early. Love to hear other's observations, thoughts, analysis about this humbling market. Of course, these are not predictions, Do Your Own Due Diligence (DYODD) and take your own risk. GLTA.