RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Wtf Is post rollover the best time for a move? Depends. It can be if contango is eaten up early and the move jump starts. However, with the massive 16% contango; current month (April) futures and next month (May futures), will begin to come together on price otherwise there would be an arbitrage opportunity from the rollover. This can cause the May futures to drop (like we're seeing now) and grow new contango from May to June. Of course the day after April expires, HVU starts daily rollovers into June contracts and this newly created contango can begin decaying HVU again. As mentioned, contango is the normal market condition and is why HVU perpetually decays.
Regarding markets: Fundamental news and numbers effectively mean nothing. Emotion dictates price. Just like a person could be super excited they bought a brand new Ferarri, even though the reality is they can't afford the payments or maintenance and they can only drive it 6 months of the year. It will take a while for that reality to subdue the excitement.
The same is true for markets. When they're euphoric, nothing can stop them. When they're paranoid, nothing can save them. Emotion never lasts forever but it can last longer than many expect (no better example than the present). Humans are unpredictable and the herd can spook like a herd of cattle from the wind.
Is S&P overcooked? Very. Should it correct soon? I think so. Could it keep running higher? I've seen good analysis that suggests so. That's why this game ain't as easy as it seems.
I hope what you take from this market lesson is 1) Never trade what you don't understand. 2) Only begin trading something with fake money or very small amounts of disposable real money to gain feel and prove results. 3) Markets are irrational, and can remain irrational longer than we can remain solvent.
The moment we second guess our trading plans mid-position or start grasping for straws to recover losses, we're done for. Those actions blow up accounts.
Until another day. -TCB