RE:RE:HVU price expectationsEverything you say here is 100% correct. I am also expecting potentially extreme volatility within the next couple of months.
With regards to HVU, I am not new to it, so be very careful. I made a killing in February, selling a bunch of shares at 62 that I bought under 30 in December. Then in the spring, I lost almost all those gains waiting for at least some kind of pop. I predicted Brexit correctly, and made some back off of that, but not enough since I expected a bigger impact.
You are getting in at the right time though - it seems HVU loses MUCH MUCH more vallue in the January - August period than it does in the September - December period. This is partly due to known volatility trends that you have mentioned.
Just always remember, long term this ETF is always going towards 0, just like all VIX products that have to re-stock on options.
Prisme13 wrote: I've read a couple of articles talking about how the bond market is in a mega bubble and that there could be a spill over on to the stock market once the selling starts. Investors have lost faith in the China machine, oil is in limbo until 2017 and with a possible rate hike or Trump win things could go totally insane. So many different elements could spur the next rout but no clear winner yet. Interesting article on Seeking Alpha today about the volatility trend from 1928 to today: Sept and Oct are always the most volatile on average and we are just at the beginning. I plan to buy very small amounts of shares on the dips near the end of calm days like today. At the next big 20%-30% pop I should not have many share underwater if the S&P goes up between now and the BOE & BOJ meeting next Tuesday and the Fed on Wednesday. After that period, I will buy the dips and wait for the apocalypse until the election. Sorry, I couldn't add anything on the potential value of the HVU, I'm new with this beast.
anevsky wrote: What are your thoughts guys?
I think if VIX goes to 30+ due to a roughly 10% correction in SPX, we can expect a roughly 300% increase in HVU, to about $12-15.
If the correction in SPX is well over 20%, VIX 40+ and HVU can get to $20.
These rough estimates are based on the last 2 years of price action proportions....
So if there is a full-blown market crash, I honestlyt have no idea how high HVU can get. Does anyone think over $50 per share is possible?