upsideAthena
The current 28 mmbo gross 2P reserves are only from the Upper Leek formation.
The 14/18b-7, 14/18b-15 and 14/18b-16 all flow tested from this formation at 1,302 bod, 1,330 bod and 1,375 bod.
The 14/18b-12 well flow tested 1,302 bod from the Lower Leek Formation. So it is clear that there is oil present in this sand and its deliverability is very close to that of the Upper Leek formation.
In the “Assets” area of Ithaca’s website, under “Athena Discovery”, there is an illustration showing that the Lower Leek sands have as large an aerial extent as the 3P gross reserves (40 mmbo) area contained in the Upper Leek sands. Shown below.
https://www.ithacaenergy.com/ithaca_athena_blocks1.asp
So this means that Athena has a lot more potential than just extending the Upper Leek sands, but also the Lower Leek sands to appraise as well. The 14/18b-12 well seems to have been drilled on the flank of the structure where the sands should be thin compared to the crest of the structure. One more successful well into the Lower Leek structure and we should be able to book official reserves.
Athena East
Current 8 mmbo gross resources (2P) are attributed to the 14/18-1 well that flowed 1,250 bod (Upper Jurassic sands). No oil/water contact was found in the 14/18-1 well increasing its potential to depth.
A successful appraisal well into the Upper Jurassic sands that finds the o/w contact will greatly increase the Athena East resources and solidify the commerciality of the deposit as it is only 4 km away from Athena, making it a very short and relatively cheap tie-in when Athena is online.
I see this deposit as potentially the largest net upside to IAE in their current appraisal inventory. They own it 100% and depending on where the o/w contact is the potential field could really create a lot of shareholder wealth. If the next appraisal well into the structure finds oil in a similar reservoir with similar pressure as in the 14/18-1 well and then finds the deeper o/w contact the field could be very large.
For example, if the new net payzone from the newly found o/w contact in an appraisal well was to be twice as deep as the net payzone in the discovery well the 8 mmbo resource number could jump into the 32 mmbo range as the net pay and the aerial extent each doubled the current resource number to increase the original total by 4 times overall. All this with just 1 appraisal well 0.5-1.0 km away from the 14/18-1 well. With commerciality those “2P resource” numbers will get reclassified into “2P reserves” and get placed onto future reserve reports.
Also add in the fact that there is more upside from the Lower Cretaceous Sands (Leek Sands) that were not penetrated by the 14/18-1 well. I expect the next appraisal well to be drilled into the Lower Cretaceous Sands to find the o/w contact in the Upper Jurassic sands and test the Leek sands as well.
Stella
Management already believes it to be commercial with the current reserves in-place from the Andrew sands. No gas/water contact has been found in any of the wells drilled in Stella to date. In the last NR it was stated that there are at least 3 wells (30/6-2, 30/6-3 & 30/6-5) drilled into the structure.
It is not known at this time if Stella has more upside in terms of aerial extent, but an infill well that finds the deeper o/w contact will definitely increase the reserves. How much depends on how deep the o/w contact is located.
Oilexco found the o/w contact in their Bugle field when they re-entered the discovery well drilled years ago. After the o/w contact was found the payzone thickness increased by nearly 2.5 times what it was before and the reserves in the field are now believed to hold 50 mmbo. They were estimated to hold 20 mmbo prior to Oilexco finding the o/w contact. Stella and Athena East both have this type of reserves expansion potential as Bugle did for Oilexco just by finding a much lower water contact.
Maersk Oil is the operator of block 30/6, from the Chalk formation and above, so any future appraisal drilling will occur on their time as they call the shots. However, IAE has already stated in the last NR that they will drill another appraisal well targeting the gas/water contact in 2008/2009 so it seems that this deposit is on Maersk’s radar as well in their grand scheme of things or IAE could not have made such a comment without the operator on board.
Beatrice
-495 mmbo OIIP
-165 mmbo recovered to-date @ 33.33% recovery rate.
-Management believes up to another 19 mmbo to be recovered @ 37.25% recovery rate.
Harrier Shallow
The 30/6-4 well tested condensate and gas in the Upper Cretaceous Ekofisk and Tor formations and was later appraised by 3 sidetracks. Further technical work is required to understand the potential of this discovery. Maersk Oil also operates this discovery.