RE: Why wait for 1.5 yr for the real CF?“They will only have a minor field coming on with low net-backs - basically bought for the infra-structure”
The UK has the highest netbacks in the world. CAX is in Tunisia and they have nowhere near the UK netbacks for both oil and gas. At $110 oil IAE’s netbacks are expected to be at $95-$100/bo for Beatrice + Jacky fields. Not so in Tunisia.
CAX will have about 4,000 boed in 2009 to IAE’s average 2009 prduction of 10,000 boed.
On a fully-diluted basis IAE has less shares out.
IAE has greater production, greater netbacks and a lower share-structure and that all adds to a greater CF/diluted share and an ultimately higher SP when compared to CAX.
Same goes for BUK.
IAE – 10,000 bod, BUK – 6,000 boed (83.33% gas)
Oil has much higher netbacks than gas in the UK (UK commodity prices of $110/bo oil vs. $72/boe from gas currently).
IAE has 170 mm diluted shares to BUK’s 200 mm shares.
Add in that IAE has 2 more fields coming online after 2009 + 2 more discoveries to appraise that should add to that total.
BUK has 2 more small gas fields that could be developed after Durango coming online in Oct (6,000 boed), but then after that they need to explore and find some larger fields and that seriously increases the risks as exploration is a very tricky game vs. the development and appraisal drilling of IAE.
I like BUK, but not as much as IAE.
Not a fan of CAX. They’ve been trying to increase those old CUX assets they bought a couple of years back and still nothing so far.