RE:Malcy's BlogDougie Boy, thanks for the blurb form the MalcMeister. If anyone has access to the Globe and Mail Unlimited, they would have seen an excellent article by Scott Barlow, a small snipet below, which shows demand outstripping supply by mid 2017.
The best available supply and demand forecast data is not from the IEA, but the Washington D.C.-based Energy Information Administration. The chart below plots the history of global demand and supply growth from 2012 to the present and also their forecasts to the end of 2017.
The beginning of the current oil glut is apparent on the chart beginning in July 2014 as global supply – largely thanks to U.S. shale oil production – began exceeding demand. Excess supply growth peaked in May of 2015 when worldwide production exceeded demand by 2.9 million barrels per day. The most recent results show this gap narrowing. March saw excess supply of only one million barrels per day.
The forecasts predict that global energy markets will be balanced – equal supply and demand - briefly in February 2017 and then sustainably after July 2017. The oil glut will be over.