The Future My concern is not so much how these talks progress but having the FPSO safely arrive in the Mediterranean. After that, risks drop significantly for the project in my mind and 2012 production rates should produce a cash flow which would imply a stock price of $3.30 at a modest P/CF ratio of 3.0. This should be achieved by mid year so that's my absolute low ball price by this summer - takeover or not. Of course, there are lots of reasons one could argue higher share price and production numbers but that's still an all but guaranteed 20% upside in 5 months - once we're in the Mediterranean.
On a risk reward basis, I'm very comfortable using these conservative numbers as a base case.