Risk vs rewardThe ratio of risk and reward has changed in the last couple of weeks. People who took the risk a couple of weeks ago, got the current gains.
What often happens, is that people who waited for the risk to decrease, hope to see the price return to the lows when the risk was higher. These people would like to "have their cake and eat it too". Sometimes they get lucky and the stock pulls back. Often this doesn't happen and they forever watch it rise, and then kick themselves afterwards.
People who buy now are taking less risk than a couple weeks ago, meaning they have to pay more. If they wait until the 5th well data is a success to buy, then they have less risk and the price will be higher. As we move towards stella and more things get completed, the risk drops and the stock costs more.
So if people want to wait until stella pumps oil to buy, that's fine. But the risk will be essentially zero at that point, and the stock could be at $3.50 depending on the price of oil.
People who buy now can still get 100% gains, and the stock will simply return to where it was a month ago. And even then it'll still be way undervalued when the price of oil rises.
Jmo