RE:Oil's Major Support: $40/BFalling rig counts since last december predicted that US feilds production would start a decline in the coming months.
Barthamae: "Shale production expected to flatten out and then decline".
Well, it could have started last june:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W
Scroll way down: peek at 9,610 b/d on june 5th, flattened up to july 3rd and started to decline, 9,348 b/d today. And that doesn't include Canada and International.
That starting down trend can't reverse quickly with the rig contracts way down since last year's peek: -60% US and -80% Canada.
On the demand side (from OPEC 11 august 2015 report):
"Global oil demand is expected to grow by 1.38 mb/d in 2015, some 90 tb/d higher than last month’s projections with total oil demand anticipated to reach 92.70 mb/d. In 2016, world oil demand growth is expected at 1.34 mb/d with total world consumption hitting a record level of 94.04 mb/d"
https://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/MOMR_August_2015.pdf
Production cuts could kick in sooner than people think...
al imho